Trading Forecast: EURUSD and Dow Bearings Rest on Jackson Hole, Trump

Scheduled event risk is starting to give way to sentiment and systemic fundamental concerns – a prospect that threatens volatility at a time of year when quiet is supposed to prevail. Trade wars are finding guidance from headlines that President Trump regularly tops, while recession fears are tied more closely to market measures. The Jackson Hole Symposium will present an opportunity for officials to discuss all of this.

Australian Dollar Bears Rule But May Not Turn Up Heat This Week

The Australian Dollar remains close to notable lows against its US counterpart and the market is still betting on aggressive rate cuts from the RBA

Sliding Crude Oil Can’t Look to Jackson Hole For Price Support

Crude oil prices continue to drop as the economic data keep huge question marks glowering over likely demand levels.

US Dollar May Rise if Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole Spook Markets

The US Dollar may rise if the Fed meeting minutes and commentary at the Jackson Hole symposium spooks markets and boost demand for liquidity.

Sterling Price Weekly Forecast: Brexit Newsflow and Political Manoeuvres

Next week’s UK data vacuum will be filled by the latest political shenanigans with rumor and counter-rumor focusing on who is up to what, with who and why.

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening.

Euro May Fall as ECB Easing Looms, Italy Flirts with Early Elections

The Euro may fall as dovish ECB meeting minutes and soft PMI data set the stage for easing in September while Italy flirts with early elections.

Currency Performance Vs USD Chart

SPX Chart with DXY,Oil, and Gold

Chart Legend

Black = Oil (CL Futures)

Yellow = Gold (XAUUSD)

Green = USD (DXY Index)

Top Market Charts for Next Week: Dollar, Gold, Oil, Dow and More

An unexpected buoyancy in volatility is the common feature across the global markets’ landscape. More significant market swings have earned a few benchmarks like Gold and Yields remarkable trends, while it has pushed the likes of the Dollar, Dow and Oil to the brink of more substantial breakouts.

US Dollar Technical Forecast: Bidding for a Breakout?

The US Dollar remains stuck in the washing machine its been in for months, but that could be about ready to change…

Gold Price Targets: Bulls Risk Exhaustion as XAU/USD Eyes Resistance

Gold prices failed at key targets this week with the long-bias vulnerable below trend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD chart.

Crude Oil Price Outlook Bearish, Eyeing January Lows on Long Bets

Crude oil prices may extend the dominant downtrend on bearish technical signals, eyeing January lows as IG Client Sentiment offers a stronger downside contrarian trading bias.

Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Has AUD/USD Finally Found Support?

There hasn’t been much in the realm of optimism on AUD/USD this year; but sometimes the simple lack of a negative (fresh lows) can start to take on the form a positive.

Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecasts

The Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 experienced considerable volatility last week but ended the week on a high note. Can they continue to rebound, or will prior support prove insurmountable?

Euro Breakdown Potential Not as Extreme as EURUSD May Propose

Looking to the world’s most liquid currency cross – EURUSD – we find the FX market on the verge of a technical tidal change with multi-year lows in sight. But what does the Euro itself face ahead?

Currencies Vs USD Performance Chart SPX Chart with Oil, Gold, and DXY

Chart Legend

Black = Oil (CL Futures)

Yellow = Gold (XAUUSD)

Green = USD (DXY Index)

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

SPX 2-Hour Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet
  • DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Equity Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening. However, while the inversion of the yield curve raises the fear of a recession, concerns that it could be imminent is possibly misplaced, given that on average a recession does not take place until 20 months later, while in that time the S&P 500 peaks roughly 24% within that time. Looking ahead to next week, the main focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium in which the Fed Chair Powell is schedule to speak (Aug 23rd).

S&P 500 Chart

DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Last week’s ZEW survey and contraction in German growth continued to emphasise the need for ECB stimulus, which has been further alluded to by Olli Rehn, who has called for the central bank to over-deliver. Currently, money markets are pricing in 15bps worth of easing from the ECB, however, the key focus will be on the composition of QE2. Next week sees the release of the Eurozone flash PMIs, which is expected to highlight the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, however, concerns could rise if the weakness spills over into the services sector.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2018 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

UK: Leaked government document foresees shortage of food and medicine in …

According to a leaked government document detailing Operation Yellowhammer, the UK’s preparation guide to a no-deal Brexit, there will likely be a shortage of food and medicine and a hard Irish border, the Sunday Times reported on Sunday. 

Reporting on the matter, “The documents predict severe extended delays to medicine supplies and shortages of some fresh foods combined with price rises as a likely scenario if the UK leaves without a withdrawal agreement, which is due to happen on 31 October,” The Guardian’s Rowena Mason wrote.

Although Downing Street sources refrained from commenting on the leaked document, they acknowledged the fact that it was prepared when Theresa May was the Prime Minister, confirming its existence.

The British pound finished the week as the best performing G10 currency supported by upbeat employment and retails sales data from the UK but could start the new week under pressure following this development. 

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

SPX 2-Hour Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet
  • DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Equity Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening. However, while the inversion of the yield curve raises the fear of a recession, concerns that it could be imminent is possibly misplaced, given that on average a recession does not take place until 20 months later, while in that time the S&P 500 peaks roughly 24% within that time. Looking ahead to next week, the main focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium in which the Fed Chair Powell is schedule to speak (Aug 23rd).

S&P 500 Chart

DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Last week’s ZEW survey and contraction in German growth continued to emphasise the need for ECB stimulus, which has been further alluded to by Olli Rehn, who has called for the central bank to over-deliver. Currently, money markets are pricing in 15bps worth of easing from the ECB, however, the key focus will be on the composition of QE2. Next week sees the release of the Eurozone flash PMIs, which is expected to highlight the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, however, concerns could rise if the weakness spills over into the services sector.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2018 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

SPX 2-Hour Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet
  • DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Equity Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening. However, while the inversion of the yield curve raises the fear of a recession, concerns that it could be imminent is possibly misplaced, given that on average a recession does not take place until 20 months later, while in that time the S&P 500 peaks roughly 24% within that time. Looking ahead to next week, the main focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium in which the Fed Chair Powell is schedule to speak (Aug 23rd).

S&P 500 Chart

DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Last week’s ZEW survey and contraction in German growth continued to emphasise the need for ECB stimulus, which has been further alluded to by Olli Rehn, who has called for the central bank to over-deliver. Currently, money markets are pricing in 15bps worth of easing from the ECB, however, the key focus will be on the composition of QE2. Next week sees the release of the Eurozone flash PMIs, which is expected to highlight the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, however, concerns could rise if the weakness spills over into the services sector.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2018 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

NewsWatch: These 10 ‘grey swan’ events could conspire to imperil global e…

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

Even as high-probability risks capture the minds of investors, there is a growing combination of lower-probability risks, that could create even more heartburn for investors as the third quarter draws to a close. See full story.

Treasury is about to flood the market with debt to fund U.S.’s $1 trillion deficit — and that is a concern

Liquidity in short term borrowing markets may become a problem as the U.S. Treasury ramps up its borrowing later this year to fund a soaring government budget deficit which is soon slated to reach $1 trillion See full story.

After the yield curve inverts — here’s how the stock market tends to perform since 1978

The inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, or a negative spread between short-term and long-term yields, has preceded the last seven recessions. However, that doesn’t mean that recessionary jitters will spark a lasting selloff in equity markets. See full story.

This recent report suggests steady saving for retirement is not important

ICI conclusions rest on shaky assumptions and exaggerate levels of Social Security benefits See full story.

This 31-year-old sold $700,000 of stuff online without buying any inventory

‘Two years ago, I couldn’t afford a taxi,’ says independent online retailer Christopher Wane See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

‘Many things our children gifted to him for Father’s Day, Christmas and birthdays. Some still bear their inscription to him.’ See full story.













We Want to
Hear from You

Join the conversation



S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

SPX 2-Hour Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet
  • DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Equity Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening. However, while the inversion of the yield curve raises the fear of a recession, concerns that it could be imminent is possibly misplaced, given that on average a recession does not take place until 20 months later, while in that time the S&P 500 peaks roughly 24% within that time. Looking ahead to next week, the main focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium in which the Fed Chair Powell is schedule to speak (Aug 23rd).

S&P 500 Chart

DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Last week’s ZEW survey and contraction in German growth continued to emphasise the need for ECB stimulus, which has been further alluded to by Olli Rehn, who has called for the central bank to over-deliver. Currently, money markets are pricing in 15bps worth of easing from the ECB, however, the key focus will be on the composition of QE2. Next week sees the release of the Eurozone flash PMIs, which is expected to highlight the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, however, concerns could rise if the weakness spills over into the services sector.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2018 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

SPX 2-Hour Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet
  • DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Equity Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | US Yield Curve Inverts, But Don’t Panic Yet

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening. However, while the inversion of the yield curve raises the fear of a recession, concerns that it could be imminent is possibly misplaced, given that on average a recession does not take place until 20 months later, while in that time the S&P 500 peaks roughly 24% within that time. Looking ahead to next week, the main focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium in which the Fed Chair Powell is schedule to speak (Aug 23rd).

S&P 500 Chart

DAX | ECB Member Calls for QE Bazooka

Last week’s ZEW survey and contraction in German growth continued to emphasise the need for ECB stimulus, which has been further alluded to by Olli Rehn, who has called for the central bank to over-deliver. Currently, money markets are pricing in 15bps worth of easing from the ECB, however, the key focus will be on the composition of QE2. Next week sees the release of the Eurozone flash PMIs, which is expected to highlight the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, however, concerns could rise if the weakness spills over into the services sector.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2018 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

COT Report: Speculators reduced Gold, Silver, US Dollar Index bullish bets. Yen bets up

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes.

This week in the COT data, precious metals speculators cut back on their Gold and Silver positions after both have had very strong gains in the past few months. Gold speculators edged their bullish bets lower while Silver speculators sharply reduced their bullish bets for a 2nd week.

Copper speculators, meanwhile, pulled back on their bearish bets this week. Last week, Copper bearish positions had risen by the most on record for one week (-29,694 contracts) to a new all-time record high bearish position of -58,449 contracts.



Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Report: – See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.


Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter


In currencies, the USD Index speculators trimmed their bullish bets for the first time in seven weeks. Japanese yen bets improved for a 4th week and rose by over +14,000 net contracts for a second straight week.

The 10-Year Bond speculators continued to push their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week. Despite the speculative bearishness, the 10-Year Note price has continued to rise sharply higher while the 10-year yield has fallen to all the way down to 1.55 percent.

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculators added to their bullish bets this week after positions had fallen in the previous three straight weeks.


Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets, push Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

Large currency speculators reduced their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. See full article.


WTI Crude Oil Speculators pushed their bullish bets slightly higher this week

The large speculator contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 382,144 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 6,503 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


10-Year Note Speculators added to their bearish bets for 5th week

Large speculator contracts of the 10-Year Bond futures totaled a net position of -414,346 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -23,460 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Gold Speculators edged their bullish bets lower this week

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the Gold futures totaled a net position of 290,090 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -2,455 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Silver Speculators reduced their bullish bets for a 2nd week

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the silver futures totaled a net position of 39,269 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -10,563 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Copper Speculators trim bearish bets after last week’s surge

Metals speculator contracts of the copper futures totaled a net position of -53,600 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 4,849 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).