The price of oil shoots higher on demand side bias.
G20 pans out bullish for global growth demand prospects for oil.
Iraq’s oil minister suggests prices are on the low side and $70 plus is a good price.
Following the news that Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal with OPEC on reducing oil output, as well as a trade war truce between China and the US and today’s comments from Iraq’s oil minister ahead of the OPEC meeting beginning Monday in Vienna, the price of a barrel of oil has shot higher up to the $60 handle.
Iraq’s oil minister:
We have open mind on oil output deal extension.
Fully endorses extension to end of year, no objection to nine months
Any decision by OPEC, OPEC+ must be taken within premises of OPEC.
On deeper cuts, says it’s too early to say.
Says oil prices are on the low side, $70 plus is a good price.
A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months. The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets. This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.
Overall, our research has been focused on one of the hottest markets anywhere in the US, California. Los Angeles, Ventura County, Orange County, San Diego, and San Francisco make up the entire massive Southern California real estate market. The California real estate market is a fairly strong indicator for weaker market segments because the number of transactions taking place across the 400+ miles spanning San Francisco to San Diego represent multiple trillions of dollars, vast segments of consumers and types of housing as well as an incredibly diverse economic landscape ranging from coastal regions, farming regions, cities, technology hubs, agriculture and dozens of others (source).
Our concern is that a rate decrease by the US Fed may be interpreted as a “move to attempt to abate fear” instead of a “move to support the markets”. If this decrease in rates does happen and at-risk homeowners fear the Fed is trying to push buttons to adjust the consumer environment toward a “buying bias” and sellers become scared, then the race to sell faster (decreasing prices to attract buyers) may become the norm. In other words, in an effort to support the markets, the Fed could take actions that remove the floor from the markets as sellers attempt to get the best price possible before buyers become aware of the “race to the bottom” in terms of pricing.
At-risk homeowners are under increasing pressures as pricing, income and other expenses seem to have wreaked havoc with what was a traditionally strong real estate market just three years ago. It appears the Fed has raised rates just enough to start to show the cracks in the dam in Orange County and LA County, California. The increasing number of blue dots, as well as the continue “price drops” in these areas, are a very clear sign that the “hot market” is now just “mildly warm and cooling fast”. Prices are past the peak and are already starting to decline fairly rapidly.
Additionally, delinquency levels for commercial and industrial loans are starting to rise dramatically – much like what happened in 2007 – just months before the credit market crash in 2008. Commercial and Industrial loan delinquencies rose sharply from 1.14 in Q2 2007 to 1.45 in Q1 2008 – eventually peaking at 447 in Q3 2009. Currently, Delinquency levels are at 1.17 – up from 0.93 for Q4 2018. If this trend continues past September, we could be looking at a very different real estate economic picture by the end of 2019 or early 2020 (Source).
Our interpretation of the US housing market is that buyers are becoming more opportunistic as they are watching the markets and watching how sellers are dropping prices in an attempt to attract a sale. Buyers have not seen this type of activity since early 2007-08 or so when sellers were getting desperate to get out of their homes near the top of the market. At the same time, watching how sellers attempt to push their home into the hands of buyers creates a shifting dynamic in the Real Estate market. All the sudden it went from a seller’s market and is now shifting into a buyers market.
The rates of delinquencies, consumer confidence, and levels of disposable income all factor into the market’s reactions to price and sales activity. When buyers believe it is opportunistic to buy, they will move mountains to attempt to acquire a home or an asset. When buyers believe it is not opportunistic to buy an asset, they will likely decide to wait for a more opportunistic time to make their purchase.
In part II of this article, we will share our research that highlights the incredible trade setup related to the Real Estate market and how technical traders can position their portfolios for this move.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
The perennial NBA All-Star and two-time Finals MVP will leave the Golden State Warriors to sign a free-agent contract with the Brooklyn Nets.
Durant said earlier in the day he would make his announcement Sunday night on the Instagram page of his sports-business company, The Boardroom, but media outlets including ESPN beat him to it. At 6 p.m. Eastern, the Boardroom confirmed the news. “Kevin Durant has confirmed he will sign a max deal with the Brooklyn Nets when the free agent moratorium period ends on July 6th,” a statement read.
The deal is for four years and $164 million, and Durant is expected to be joined by All-Star guard Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Jordan, ESPN reported.
Durant ruptured his Achilles tendon during the NBA Finals earlier this month, and is expected to miss most, if not all, of next season.
In signing with the Nets, Durant spurned the Warriors’ five-year, $221 million offer.
Durant had been scheduled to meet with the Warriors, Nets, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday after the NBA free-agency period started at 6 p.m. He signed as a free agent with the Warriors in 2016, and won two NBA titles in three seasons there.
The signing is a devastating blow to the Knicks, who freed up salary-cap space this past year in hopes of signing Durant and possibly Irving as well.
Financial security is the end-goal for most investors. But insecurity is an unavoidable part of investing. No risk, no reward, after all.
Income-producing investments take away some of the market’s uncertainty. For many investors, this predictable cash flow can make all the difference between sitting with stock-market distress and selling in panic.
If the stories featured here about income investing bring you peace of mind, make sure your investment portfolio reflects your reality, rather than being one that experts say you should have. Create a foundation you can safely stand on, and then see about adding risk. Plus, read about current stock market conditions and what the second half of 2019 could bring investors, along with retirement-portfolio tips.
Here’s what’s stopping consumers from adopting green energy
A recent Deloitte study showed that 63% of consumers are very worried about climate change. But when it comes to taking action to reduce their own carbon footprint, 67% say financial cost is their main concern when considering energy resources. Here’s what’s stopping consumers from adopting green energy
Advanced Markets added trading in cryptocurrencies with seven trading instruments: BTC/USD, BCH/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USD, EOS/USD, LTC/USD, and XLM/USD.
FP Markets now work with deposits and withdrawals via credit/debit cards. The company is no longer regulated by CySEC. Their website is now available also in Vietnamese, Italian, Indonesian, and Malay. Customer support now also speaks Arabic, Russian, and Spanish. Live account traders now get free VPS service. ECN accounts now require just $100 (compared to $1,000 previously). The broker now offers a new trading platform — IRESS Suite.
This cartoon apparently wasn’t fit to print in New Brunswick, Canada, and it reportedly cost Michael de Adder his job after the internet got hold of it.
As you can see, de Adder turned the heartbreaking photo of a father and daughter who died trying to cross the Rio Grande into a cartoon slamming Trump for his assumed indifference to the plight of the migrants at the southern border.
“I *literally* gasped audibly when I saw this cartoon,” One Twitter
follower replied, capturing the general sentiment across social media toward the illustration. “My husband & children heard & wanted to know what was wrong. I almost couldn’t speak to respond. It was that painfully true.”
Actor Mark Hamill chimed in, saying it’s “Pulitzer Prize-worthy.”
While it was clearly a viral hit, the cartoon didn’t go over too well with the people signing the checks, according to de Adder:
Wes Tyrell, president of the Association of Canadian Cartoonists, claims in a Facebook
post that there’s more going on here with the J.D. Irving-owned Brunswick News, Inc. than just a controversial cartoon.
“The Irvings have considerable corporate interests in the United States, but why would they care about cartoons potentially offending the American president?” he wrote. “Trade has been an issue since Trump took office, trade that affects the Irvings directly, not to mention a host of other issues. And the President himself is an unknown quantity who punishes those who appear to oppose him.”
Brunswick News admitted terminating de Adder’s contract but denied the cartoon was the cause.
“This is a false narrative which has emerged carelessly and recklessly on social media,” BNI said in a statement Sunday. “In fact, BNI was not even offered this cartoon by Mr. de Adder. The decision to bring back reader favourite Greg Perry was made long before this cartoon, and negotiations had been ongoing for weeks.”
Meanwhile, de Adder is still at it:
Shawn Langlois is an editor and writer for MarketWatch in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @slangwise.
Saudi Arabia’s CEO Amin Nasr’s message to the press that oil flows to the market are guaranteed, should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Looking at the current volatility in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and the possibility of a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Aramco CEO’s message might be a bit overoptimistic. In reality, Aramco will not be able to keep the necessary crude oil and products volumes flowing to Asian and European markets in the case of a full Strait of Hormuz blockade. Even that Aramco owns and operates a crude oil pipeline with a capacity of 5 million bpd, carrying crude 1,200 kilometers between the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea, much more is needed to keep the oil market stable.
Nasr’s move to stabilize the market is praiseworthy but should be seen as an attempt to quell fears of traders and financial analysts, especially just before the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna next week. Nasr reiterated that Aramco (aka the Kingdom) is able to supply sufficient crude through the Red Sea, reiterating that the necessary pipeline and terminal infrastructure is there. However, what analysts tend to forget, Nasr’s statement is only linked to Saudi’s oil export volumes, which will likely be not higher this summer than around the level this pipeline can support. The real issue, if it comes to a full-blown conflict, is that not only Saudi oil is being threatened.
At present, between 20-21 million bpd of crude and petroleum products are transported via the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi exports are a vast part of it, but also the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Iran, will have to look at additional routes. A closure or military action in the region will cause a temporary disruption for all maritime traffic. Besides the options that are the already on the table, such as the Saudi onshore pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline, no other real alternatives are available, as overland trucking or rail transport is minimal. Transferring volumes via the Saudi and UAE’s pipelines is not an option at all, as the total capacity of the two is less than 10 million bpd, representing not even 50% of the current maritime flows through Hormuz. Another thing that should be noted is that pipelines can’t ship crude and crude products at the same time.
Another consequence of a blockade would be that most available VLCCs and other tankers will either be in the Persian Gulf (and blocked) or will not be able to be rerouted. Before the market will have found a solution for this, days and probably weeks will have gone by, and a price spike for all products is to be expected. This will likely also be the case for LNG and other commodity flows.
Few analysts are talking about oilfield security and pipeline availability. Any military advisor will put these options as part of his or her 1st phase military action plan. If Iran were to be attacked, or faces a surgical strike by an opponent, all Arab oil and gas infrastructure will become a legitimate offensive target (at least in the eyes of Tehran and its proxies). Geographically seen, Tehran has been dealt the best cards. Looking at the majority of oil and gas production assets and infrastructure in the Arab world, especially in Saudi Arabia, UAE or even Iraq, everything is in reach of short-distance missiles, fighter jets and even drones. Any move against Iran will result in a full-scale attack on Saudi’s Eastern Province (which produces 80% of all its oil and gas), Abu Dhabi’s offshore oil infrastructure and the regional pipelines. Looking at history, denying energy access and diminishing the opponents stability is a no-brainer in military strategy.
It can be taken for granted that Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah and others, already have prepared their oil and gas infrastructure strategy. Washington, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and even Manama, will be frantically looking for answers, but the geographical situation is disastrous.
Quelling fears in the market is the right thing to do, but reality also needs to be addressed. Nasr’s message is that of an oil company CEO, taking all precautions to deal with a calamity. ADNOC’s Sultan will be doing the same. Still, the oil market is at present a victim of geopolitical power projections of emotional leaders superseding rationality. This confrontation is one of a possibly unprecedented order, not for oil (as sceptics again will state) but with oil as a weapon for defeat or survival. The continuing reference to the Iran-Iraq tanker war during 1980-1988 is out of touch with reality. At this time, it is not going to be Iran denying support or trade with Iraq, but a possible Arab-Iranian confrontation, led by the USA if no countermeasures are being implemented.
Asian consumers will need to prepare for severe price hikes in the most optimistic scenario, but also for a shutdown of vast parts of their economy. Hormuz will not be standing on its own, more is to be taken into account, especially proxy reactions in Yemen (Gulf of Aden) or East Med (Hezbollah). Negative repercussions for Europeans are also in the picture. Saudi Arabia can do a lot, but saving the global economy if the Gulf explodes is not one of their capabilities.
Overview of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week from 01.07.2019 to 07.07.2019
Trading on key Forex news: we expect the publication of important macro statistics from China, the United States, Canada, as well as the outcome of the meeting of the central bank of Australia on monetary policy
Last week, trading on financial markets took place against the backdrop of the expectations of the G20 leaders meeting in Osaka (Japan), which began on Friday and will end on weekend. The investors will be focused on the outcome of the meeting of US President Donald Trump and President of the PRC Xi Jinping, which is scheduled for Saturday.
Investors hope that the leaders of the two countries with the largest world economies will be able to agree on the conclusion of a new trade agreement, although the prospects for such an agreement are very vague because of the conflict of the parties and mutual demands.
Against this background, investors preferred to sell the dollar and buy safe haven assets, such as the yen, the franc, government bonds, and gold, which last week reached a new annual and an almost 6-year peak near the mark of 1439.00 dollars per troy ounce. The last time the price of gold was near this mark was in August 2013. DXY dollar index was unable to recover from the losses incurred in the previous week, when it lost more than 1.8% and fell to March levels.
If the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping ends in nothing, most likely the global stock indices will sank again and the Fed will nevertheless have to reduce the interest rate in July (the Fed meeting is scheduled for July 30-31). And this is a strong negative fundamental factor for the dollar.
One way or another, it is possible that on Monday trading will start with a gap, primarily in dollar pairs.
Contradicting macro statistics from the United States also exerted pressure on the dollar. So, Chicago’s business barometer (Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)), which is interconnected with the ISM Business Index and measures economic activity in Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, dropped below 50 in June, the first time since January 2017. Just four months ago, this indicator was at 64.7.
Next week will be less saturated with important events, and on Thursday, July 4, the USA will celebrate Independence Day, and the American trading floors will be closed.
Next week, traders will focus on the RBA meeting devoted to monetary policy issues, meeting of the leaders of the oil sector in OPEC+ countries, the publication of PMI business activity index for China and the United States, as well as the publication of data from the American and Canadian labor markets on Friday.
As always, this trading week we expect a number of important macroeconomic indicators and some important news.
Monday, July 1
At the end of last year, OPEC and a number of countries outside the group, including Russia, agreed on a coordinated reduction in total production by 1.2 million barrels a day, starting in January 2019. This arrangement led to higher prices. However, American mining companies consistently increased production, thus strongly leveling OPEC’s efforts to stabilize the oil market.
It is likely that OPEC will extend the term of restrictions on production for the second half of this year, given China’s economic weakness and the slowing global economy. Such a decision should support the price of oil.
01:45 CNY Caixin PMI of activity in the manufacturing sector
This is a leading indicator of the state of the manufacturing sector in China. China’s economy is the second largest in the world, so the publication of important macroeconomic indicators from China can have a strong impact on the entire financial market. Forecast: 50.0 in June (against 50.2 in May, 50.2 in April, 50.8 in March, 49.9 in February and 48.3 in January). A value below 50 indicates a slowdown, and a relative decline below this value may have a more negative effect on the yuan’s quotes. Growth and a value above 50 is a positive factor for the yuan. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, the yuan will strengthen against the dollar, which will probably also have a positive effect on commodity prices, such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars.
14:00 USD PMI business activity index (by ISM) in the manufacturing sector of the US economy
The PMI business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the US economy published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, one below 50 is negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 51.5 in June (versus 52.1 in May, 52.8 in April, 55.3 in March). An obvious downward trend and a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the dollar.
Forecast: the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 1.00%. According to many economists, the RBA will be forced to ease its monetary policy, given the weak wage growth and slowdown in the Australian economy, especially due to the growing threat of a slowdown in the US and Chinese economies against the background of the trade conflict between these countries. The United States and especially China, are Australia’s closest trade and economic partners.
In the second half of 2018, the growth of the Australian economy almost stopped. On an annualized basis, it slowed down to about 1% from 4% in the first half of the year. The government has already announced a tax cut of 13 billion Australian dollars from the next fiscal year, which begins on July 1, and the last draft budget of December 1 provides for a reduction of income tax in the amount of 9 billion Australian dollars.
The deterioration in the prospects for the world economy makes interest rate cuts in Australia inevitable. This is a strong negative factor for the Australian dollar. However, the expected reduction in the interest rate on July 2 is already largely priced in by market participants. Probably, the market reaction to this RBA decision will be restrained, unless, of course, the RBA announces the continuation of the rate reduction cycle. If the RBA signals the likelihood of another one or two rate cuts this year, the fall of the Australian dollar will be inevitable.
09:30 AUD Speech by head of the RBA Philip Lowe
In his speech, Philip Lowe will explain the central bank’s interest rate decision and assess the current situation in the Australian economy. He will probably also indicate further plans for the monetary policy of the department. Any signals from him regarding changes in the plans of the monetary policy of the RBA will cause a sharp increase in volatility in the AUD trading and in the Australian stock market.
Wednesday, July 3
14:00 USD Business activity index (ISM) in the services sector
This indicator assesses the state of the services sector in the US economy. Forecast: 56.0 in June (against 56.9 in May). The growth rate and the result above 50 are considered as a positive factor for the USD. However, a relative decline in the indicator indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar.
Thursday, July 4
No important macro data planned to be published.
USA celebrates Independence Day. US banks and exchanges will be closed, which will lead to a fall in trading volumes in the second half of the trading day.
Friday, July 5
12:30 USD Average hourly wages. Non-farm payrolls. Unemployment rate
The most important indicators of the state of the labor market in the US in June. Forecast: +0.3% (against +0.2% in May) / 158,000 (against 75,000 in May) / 3.6% (against 3.6% in May), respectively.
Overall, the indicators can be described as strong, given that unemployment is at multi-year lows. If they come out better than the forecast, it will have a more positive impact on the USD. However, it is often difficult to predict the market response to the publication of indicators, since many historical indicators are frequently revised. In any case, when data from the US labor market is released, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only for the USD, but on the entire financial market. Cautious investors may prefer to stay out of the market during this time.
12:30 CAD Changes in employment in Canada. Canadian unemployment rate
Statistics Canada will release data on the country’s labor market for June. Previous value: +27,700 employees (in May). If the growth in the number of people employed in June is weaker than the previous value (the forecast is +8,000 people employed), then the Canadian dollar may respond with a decrease.
Unemployment in May was 5.4% (5.7% in April, 5.8% in March and February). In the case of rising unemployment, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data is better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for the CAD, a rise in unemployment is a negative factor. Forecast: 5.6% in June. The relative growth rate is likely to adversely affect the CAD.
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.
The European Union (EU) leaders hope to reach an agreement over dinner from 1800 CET (1600 GMT) on deciding the bloc’s top five positions, as cited by Reuters.
However, they have also scheduled a breakfast on Monday should the job selection process extend beyond Sunday’s dinner.
In an interview with the Anglo-American Press Association of Paris on Sunday, France’s European Affairs State Minister Amelie de Montchalin said: “What we’re looking for is a team which has legitimacy, energy, is competent and has the support of the Council and European Parliament. But if we enter into this discussion with our national flags, in a competition of nationalities, we lose the European spirit.