USD Soars on Fed, Gold Price Cleared Support on Less Dovish Powell

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

  • US Dollar, bond yields soar as Federal Reserve surprises less dovish and S&P 500 sinks
  • Anti-fiat gold prices fell, increasing risk of a top after rising support from June gave way
  • Asia Pacific markets may follow Wall Street lower as USD gains extend, AUD weakens

Not sure where gold is heading next? Check out the third quarter fundamental and technical forecast!

Fed Disappoints as Financial Markets Succumb to Risk Aversion

For the first time since 2008, the Federal Reserve has reduced benchmark lending rates in the world’s largest economy. Yet the US Dollar and government bond yields rallied, picking up pace as Chair Jerome Powell held his press conference after the 25 basis point rate cut. Based on his commentary and voting by policy setters, it was clear that the markets were left wanting more on a less-dovish central bank.

The most notable point that Mr Powell arguably made was that Wednesday’s action was not the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle. This is even as the central bank pauses the unwinding of its balance sheet two months early on August 1. Rather, their actions had more to do with being preventative maintenance to sustain growth that is at risk to global uncertainties, trade wars and inflation undershooting estimates.

Equities took a hit, with the S&P 500 clearing a near-term rising support channel. This is also despite US-China trade talks concluding in Shanghai. Markets were unimpressed, as anticipated, when earlier today the two nations reported discussed topics such as agricultural trade and the US reported negotiations as “constructive”. Meanwhile, anti-fiat gold prices sunk as the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets faded.

Gold Technical Analysis

Taking a closer look at XAU/USD, the precious metal once again finds itself under the near-term rising support line from June. As mentioned in this week’s gold technical forecast, confirming further closes below this trend line opens the door to a top that has been in the making since the Bearish Engulfing candlestick earlier in July. The next area of support from here appears to be 1381.91, just under March 2014 highs.

To add to this bearish argument, the latest readings from IG Client Sentiment are offering a gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. To learn more about how to use sentiment in your own trading strategy, join me each week on Wednesday’s at 00:00 GMT as I uncover what IG Client Sentiment has to say about the prevailing trends in financial markets and follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX for timely updates!

XAU/USD – Chart of the Day

USD Soars on Fed, Gold Price Cleared Support on Less Dovish Powell

Chart Created in TradingView

Thursday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session

With that in mind, S&P 500 futures are pointing notably lower heading into Thursday’s Asia Pacific trading session. This may translate into further risk aversion which may benefit the anti-risk Japanese Yen and highly-liquid US Dollar. The pro-risk Australian Dollar is thus left vulnerable as it also eyes upcoming Caixin Chinese Manufacturing PMI data given the RBA’s data-dependent approach.

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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

GBP/USD technical analysis: 50-HMA limits immediate upside

  • GBP/USD falls short of carrying the previous pullback forward as key short-term MAs limit the upside.
  • Bears await a break of 1.2100 to revisit 2017 low.

Despite repeated failures to slip beneath 1.2100, GBP/USD remains under 50-hour moving average (HMA) as it makes the rounds to 1.2156 during early Thursday.

While sustained trading below the key short-term moving average (MA) portrays the pair’s weakness, 1.2135 and latest low surrounding 1.2120 can offer intermediate halts prior to flashing 1.2100 on the chart.

In a case bears dominate past-1.2100, the year 2017 low of 1.1987 could be on their radar.

Alternatively, the pair’s break of 1.2171 HMA figure can trigger its recovery to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of .12224 whereas 1.2250 and 100-HMA level of 1.2268 can please buyers then after.

GBP/USD hourly chart

Trend: Bearish

 

US Dollar Price Action Eyes BOE, PMI Data Post-Fed Rate Cut

US DOLLAR TURNS TO MANUFACTURING PMI DATA, BOE

  • The Federal Reserve (Fed) just revealed its first rate cut since embarking on its hiking cycle that began December 2015
  • US Dollar price action will likely take cues for its next direction from the BOE and manufacturing PMI reports out of China, Canada and the US
  • Download the free DailyFX Q3 USD Forecast for in-depth technical and fundamental outlook

Now that the July Fed meeting is in the rearview mirror, traders will likely turn to high-impact economic events and data releases slated for Thursday’s session with the August BOE meeting in addition to manufacturing PMI readings out of China, the US and Canada.

Seeing that spot GBPUSD will be chiefly impacted by the Bank of England’s monetary policy update and Governor Carney’s follow up commentary – particularly in relation to the UK economy and the latest Brexit developments – US Dollar performance over the short term may be better observed via spot AUDUSD and spot USDCAD.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD

AUDUSD GBPUSD USDCAD Forex Economic Calendar Chart

Check out our comprehensive forex economic calendar for a full list of upcoming events and data releases!

Overarchingly, Chair Powell expressed a non-committal stance in regard to future monetary policy decisions with today’s action to lower rates viewed as an ‘insurance move’ to protect against downside risks and keep supporting the economic expansion. Despite the FOMC still seeing a positive baseline outlook, downside risks remain predominantly around slowing global GDP, trade war uncertainty and weakness across the manufacturing industry.

US Economic Surprise Index and DXY US Dollar Index Price Chart

US Fed Chair Powell also stated that the latest FOMC rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment” and that Wednesday’s decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points “differs from the start of a lengthy cutting cycle.” In light of the latest Fed policy decision, it remains paramount to watch incoming economic data closely for potential insight on how the US central bank might respond to economic developments down the road.

As such, Thursday’s release of the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, RBC Canada Manufacturing PMI and ISM US Manufacturing PMI reports will likely be scrutinized for signs of a rebound or further deterioration across this sector. Yet, it is worth mentioning that the more sanguine tone conveyed by Powell – relative to the increasing dovishness over the last few Fed meetings and other central banks – poses as a bullish prospect for the US Dollar.

SPOT AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (MARCH 26, 2019 TO JULY 31, 2019)

Spot AUDUSD price chart

Seeing that China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the Australian Dollar stands to be impacted by the release of the Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI report. If the data comes in hotter than expected, spot AUDUSD could claw back some of Wednesday’s downside. Conversely, a disappointing report stands to exacerbate the string of weakness recently recorded in spot AUDUSD.

SPOT USDCAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 24, 2019 TO JULY 31, 2019)

Spot USDCAD Price Chart

Spot USDCAD should also be kept on the radar with both Canada and the US set to release manufacturing PMI data. Also, considering central bank dynamics between the BOC remaining sidelined and the Fed now on the backburner, spot USDCAD performance may exhibit a cleaner take at where the US Dollar will head from here.

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Price Action Setups Post FOMC

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Outlook:

  • The Fed press conference saw the Dow Jones drop nearly 500 points before clarifying remarks assisted a recovery to 26,860
  • Simultaneously, the VIX spiked the 16.5 to hit the highest level since June 26 as traders repositioned
  • Check out the weekly fundamental forecast for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Price Action Setups Post FOMC

A series of relatively hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell followed an expected 25-basis point cut to the Federal Funds rate Wednesday, sparking a brief selloff across US equity markets. During the press conference, the Dow Jones momentarily sank 500 points before rebounding somewhat. Rolling into the close, losses were widespread with the Dow Jones down -1.2% versus the -1.1% and -1.3% losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively. As the dust settles, market participants will now have to decide whether the new monetary policy outlook constitutes trend continuation higher or an extension of Wednesday’s bearish reaction.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 2 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 1)

dow jones price chart fed meeting

Chart created in TradingView

Either way, the Dow Jones exhibited adherence to multiple technical levels in the session which suggests they will continue to influence the DJIA in the coming days. In the event stocks continue lower, the Dow may look for support near the ascending trendline from February and the 26,698 level – April’s swing high. Should both levels falter, subsequent support is relatively sparse until the 26,000 area. Conversely, a rebound higher will have to surmount the two levels that have kept the Index contained up to this point. That resistance is marked by two ascending trendlines of varying slopes at the 27,400 and 27,550 levels

Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: 2 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 2)

nasdaq 100 price chart fed meeting

Chart created in TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 also displayed its regard for technical influence by closing at prior all-time highs around 7,850. Critically, however, the tech-heavy Index slipped beneath two trendlines that previously posed as support. Moving forward, the two technical levels will now look to resist any attempted rebound by the Nasdaq. For more updates and analysis on the developing price action, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

Sign up for our Weekly Equity Outlook Webinar to gain earnings insight and stock market analysis through the lens of global macroeconomic trends and monetary policy.

On the other hand, a continuation of Wednesday’s move lower in Thursday trading could begin to accelerate given the lack of nearby technical support. Further, a series of unfilled gaps from price action that evolved in June could exacerbate any declines. With that in mind, 7,700 is an important level to watch as it likely possesses a modicum of buoyance and could thwart an attempt to fill the gaps down to the 7,400 level.

S&P 500 Price Chart: 2 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 3)

S&P 500 price chart fed meeting

Chart created in TradingView

While technical influence was displayed across US equities, perhaps the cleanest price action was witnessed on the S&P 500. Relatively hawkish remarks sent the Index down to the 2,960 level quickly, which marks four prior highs in September and October of 2018 along with the high in May 2019 and the swing high in the middle of June.

Evidently, the level carries significant technical merit and will look to pose the first zone of support in a renewed attempt lower. A breach beneath could open the door to further losses as the technical foundation becomes unsteady. Should bearishness continue beneath 2,960, the ascending trendline from late December will look to keep the S&P 500 afloat – as it did for the DAX 30. To the topside, initial resistance will likely be offered at the 3,000 psychological level before the Index could look to challenge the ascending trendline that stalled price earlier this week around 3,040.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Bitcoin Price Chart is Coiled like a Spring, will it Bounce or Break?

ESMA is Done with CFDs; Ceases Renewal of Intervention Measures

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has issued an announcement to inform that will not renew its restrictions on selling contract for difference (CFDs) to retail clients in Europe.

Europe’s markets watchdog began to clamp down on trading brokers offering access to highly leveraged products to retail investors back in August 2018. Since then, the ESMA extended its tough limitation four times, most recently until the end of July 2019 when the latest extension was scheduled to expire.

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This move by the ESMA does not come as a surprise as twelve months after it initially introduced its time-limited rules, most of national regulators have already made these restrictions permanent.

The decision also mirrors the watchdog’s move earlier this month when it ceased renewal of its temporary ban on binary options.

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However, the ESMA has not lost interest in the situation, adding that it will “continue to monitor activities in relation to these and other related speculative products to determine whether any other EU-wide measures may be needed.”

Brokers’ profits slumped on ESMA restrictions

Several European regulators pushed to come up with country-level permanent restrictions against CFDs and binary options even as every EU member has the right to implement its own rules tailored to their national markets.

The rules also mandate negative account protection, ensuring that customers can’t lose more than their trading stake, avoiding a repeat of the debacle following the 2015 Swiss Franc collapse. Finally, the rules forbid bonuses and other incentives, whether monetary or non monetary, that may have encouraged overtrading in recent years.

For brokers, the biggest blow has been ESMA’s decision to limit how much leverage they can offer to their clients to juice up bets. Regulated firms have been forced to limit the leverage they offer to a maximum of 30:1, with limits of as little as 2:1 on cryptocurrencies. Revenues and profits at XTB, Plus500, IG Group and similar CFDs brokers have slumped since the rules came in force.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Price Action Setups Post FOMC

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Outlook:

  • The Fed press conference saw the Dow Jones drop nearly 500 points before clarifying remarks assisted a recovery to 26,860
  • Simultaneously, the VIX spiked the 16.5 to hit the highest level since June 26 as traders repositioned
  • Check out the weekly fundamental forecast for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Price Action Setups Post FOMC

A series of relatively hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell followed an expected 25-basis point cut to the Federal Funds rate Wednesday, sparking a brief selloff across US equity markets. During the press conference, the Dow Jones momentarily sank 500 points before rebounding somewhat. Rolling into the close, losses were widespread with the Dow Jones down -1.2% versus the -1.1% and -1.3% losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively. As the dust settles, market participants will now have to decide whether the new monetary policy outlook constitutes trend continuation higher or an extension of Wednesday’s bearish reaction.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 2 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 1)

dow jones price chart fed meeting

Chart created in TradingView

Either way, the Dow Jones exhibited adherence to multiple technical levels in the session which suggests they will continue to influence the DJIA in the coming days. In the event stocks continue lower, the Dow may look for support near the ascending trendline from February and the 26,698 level – April’s swing high. Should both levels falter, subsequent support is relatively sparse until the 26,000 area. Conversely, a rebound higher will have to surmount the two levels that have kept the Index contained up to this point. That resistance is marked by two ascending trendlines of varying slopes at the 27,400 and 27,550 levels

Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: 2 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 2)

nasdaq 100 price chart fed meeting

Chart created in TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 also displayed its regard for technical influence by closing at prior all-time highs around 7,850. Critically, however, the tech-heavy Index slipped beneath two trendlines that previously posed as support. Moving forward, the two technical levels will now look to resist any attempted rebound by the Nasdaq. For more updates and analysis on the developing price action, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

Sign up for our Weekly Equity Outlook Webinar to gain earnings insight and stock market analysis through the lens of global macroeconomic trends and monetary policy.

On the other hand, a continuation of Wednesday’s move lower in Thursday trading could begin to accelerate given the lack of nearby technical support. Further, a series of unfilled gaps from price action that evolved in June could exacerbate any declines. With that in mind, 7,700 is an important level to watch as it likely possesses a modicum of buoyance and could thwart an attempt to fill the gaps down to the 7,400 level.

S&P 500 Price Chart: 2 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 3)

S&P 500 price chart fed meeting

Chart created in TradingView

While technical influence was displayed across US equities, perhaps the cleanest price action was witnessed on the S&P 500. Relatively hawkish remarks sent the Index down to the 2,960 level quickly, which marks four prior highs in September and October of 2018 along with the high in May 2019 and the swing high in the middle of June.

Evidently, the level carries significant technical merit and will look to pose the first zone of support in a renewed attempt lower. A breach beneath could open the door to further losses as the technical foundation becomes unsteady. Should bearishness continue beneath 2,960, the ascending trendline from late December will look to keep the S&P 500 afloat – as it did for the DAX 30. To the topside, initial resistance will likely be offered at the 3,000 psychological level before the Index could look to challenge the ascending trendline that stalled price earlier this week around 3,040.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Bitcoin Price Chart is Coiled like a Spring, will it Bounce or Break?

Twilio shares tumble despite stellar quarter









Twilio Inc. shares tumbled as much as 7% in extended trading Thursday despite announcing second-quarter results that beat analysts’ expectations and announced for the first time it had reached a $1 billion annual revenue run-rate.

Blame the Fed.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points may have contributed to market instability that spoiled Twilio’s












TWLO, -0.64%










 otherwise strong results, company CEO Jeff Lawson told MarketWatch, though he declined to elaborate on what drove the sell-off among investors.

Read: Fed’s hawkish rate cut could be good for the stock market in the long run, analysts say

“We had a great quarter. Everything else is just speculation,” Lawson said in a phone interview shortly after the results were announced. (Twilio shares later rallied, and are currently down 2%.)

The San Francisco-based cloud-communications platform company reported second-quarter net income of 3 cents a share, compared with a loss of 3 cents a year ago. Revenue soared 86% to $275 million from $147.8 million in the year-ago period, as Twilio continued to add customers — now up to 161,000, compared with 57,000 a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated EPS of 2 cents on revenue of $264 million. Twilio stock is up 56% this year, with the S&P 500 index












SPX, -1.09%










 gaining 20%.

Twilio, which went public in mid-2016 amid one of the driest patches in the tech IPO market, offered fiscal-year guidance of $1.113 billion, topping analysts’ forecasts of $1.106 billion.

The company’s pay-as-you-go revenue model — its products let customers integrate voice, video, messaging, and VOIP into their mobile app or on the web — was a curiosity among corporate customers when it debuted on public markets. Since then, the business model has flourished with the advent and growth of mobile technology, apps, artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

Lawson attributed the growth in customers and revenue, in part, to Twilio’s 2018 acquisition of SendGrid, a leading email API platform, for about $2 billion to enhance its cloud-computing tools.























Jon Swartz is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco, covering many of the biggest players in tech, including Netflix, Facebook and Google. Jon has covered technology for more than 20 years, and previously worked for Barron’s and USA Today. Follow him on Twitter @jswartz.


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Fed’s first interest rate cut in a decade: the winners and losers

By George Prior

There are winners and losers from the Fed’s rate cut, the first in more than a decade – and U.S. and global investors now need to revise their portfolios, warns one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s International Investment Strategist, Tom Elliott comes as America’s central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday.

Mr Elliott comments: “The Fed’s first rate in more than a decade had been widely expected, yet divides the markets’ opinion.

“U.S stocks have taken heart from a recent upturn in domestic economic data and from the prospect of the Fed and other central banks easing monetary policy over the coming months.



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“This, it is argued, will help the current cycle of U.S. and global economic growth.

“However, the U.S Treasury market, is indicating that a recession is around the corner. The inverted Treasury yield curve is cited as ‘exhibit number one’ for this thesis.”

“Today’s decision by the Fed to cut rates suggests that while the policymakers believe the economy is looking in good shape, there are also some growth headwinds on the horizon and inflation is low, so a rate cut will act as a buffer.

He continues: “Where does this leave for U.S. and international investors?

“Investors can incorporate both opinions into a portfolio by owning growth-sensitive stocks and misery-loving government bonds.  This multi-asset approach is standard amongst long-term investors.

“Specifically, the rate cut will put further downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, with the Yen, Swiss franc and Euro likely to rise against the greenback.

“Emerging stock markets should gain the most from lower Fed rates and a weaker dollar, since the massive U.S. dollar debt many emerging market companies took on in the early years of this decade becomes cheaper to service and repay in local currency terms.

“U.S. exporters should also benefit, plus the battered British Pound may get some near-term relief from a Fed rate cut, particularly as the Bank of England seems unlikely to be cutting its own benchmark rates any time soon.”

Mr Elliott concludes: “U.S. and global investors now need to revise their portfolios to ensure that they are best-positioned to take advantage of  opportunities and mitigate the risks as we enter what is likely to be a new era of rate cutting for the Federal Reserve.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Dollar blasts higher on Fed’s “insurance” rate cut

History was made today after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

Unfavourable global conditions, persistent US-China trade tensions and muted inflation pressures have forced the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the federal fund’s target range to 2-2.25%. The central bank also decided to conclude its balance sheet reduction in August – two months earlier than previously announced.

Although the monetary easing was justified by “uncertainties” stemming from weakness in the global economy, the committee expressed optimism over the US economy by calling growth “moderate” and the labour market “strong”. Overall, the Fed statement was not as dovish as markets priced for and this sentiment is being reflected in the Dollar Index which is blasting above 98.50 as of writing.

While the Fed also left the door open to future cuts, saying it will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”, this will be contingent on incoming data and US-China trade developments.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.



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Saxo Bank Goes Unconditional on BinckBank Takeover Bid

Saxo Bank has just announced that its takeover bid for Dutch online broker BinckBank is now unconditional, having claimed over 95 percent of the company’s shares.

To remind, BinckBank received an acquisition offer from Denmark-based Saxo Bank at for €6.35 per share, valuing it at €424 million ($472 million). The offer was subject to an 80 percent minimum acceptance condition, and the forex bank seemingly intended to terminate the proposed acquisition in the case this threshold is not satisfied.

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Earlier last week, Saxo Bank secured the approvals of the Dutch regulator and the European central bank to proceed with its offer.

Saxo’s stake in BinckBank now stands at 95.14% of “the aggregate issued and outstanding share capital” and shareholders who accepted the offer will now receive their consideration within seven business days of acceptance being received.

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Regarding BinckBank’s shareholders who have not tendered their shares during the offer period, they have two weeks to do so before Saxo closes the acceptance period.

The BinckBank board has already recommended that shareholders should accept the offer, in the absence of another superior offer, describing it as fair and reasonable.

Kim Fournais, CEO and founder of Saxo Bank, commented: “We are extremely pleased that the shareholders of BinckBank agree with our rationale to combine Saxo Bank and BinckBank. This is a win-win for all parties, clients, employees and last but not least the shareholders. With reaching the 95.14 per cent of shares we can now call the offer unconditional and start working on combining our forces to further improve our products and services for our customers.”

Vincent Germyns, CEO of BinckBank, added: “Today heralds another milestone in the history of BinckBank. The support of our shareholders confirms that we made the right decision to enter into this transaction. We are confident that remaining shareholders will use the post acceptance period to tender their shares so that we can ensure a smooth finalization of the process. We are looking forward to working together with the Saxo Bank team in making this happen.”