DAX & FTSE MIB Fundamental Forecast: Eyes on ECB Rate Decision

DAX Index

Equity Analysis and News

  • DAX | ECB to Signal Stimulus is on the Way
  • FTSE MIB | Are Italy Heading for Snap-Elections?

Index Change

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

DAX | ECB to Signal Stimulus is on the Way

Investors will be eyeing the latest ECB meeting, which is likely to remain dovish as Draghi and Co. signal fresh stimulus measures is on the way. Data in the Eurozone has continued to disappoint, most notably that of Germany, next week’s PMIs should give us a clue as to whether the slowing momentum is set to continue. Sticking with the ECB, the question will be whether the central bank alludes to a package of stimulus measures of simply a rate cut. Given that the Draghi typically overdelivers on the dovish side, the base case is for a package of easing measures to be signaled for a move in September. Although, keep in mind that money markets are pricing in a 50/50 chance of a rate cut as soon as July. Elsewhere, the DAX will also take its cue from several earnings with BASF, Volkswagen and Deutsche Bank to report.

DAX

(Impact of earnings on stock markets)

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Oct 2018 – Jul 2019)

DAX

FTSE MIB | Are Italy Heading for Snap-Elections?

It has been made no secret that there are notable differences between the both the League and 5 Star party, however, these differences have seemed to boil over with both Deputy PM Salvini and Di Maio suggesting that the coalition could breakdown, thus raise the likelihood the Italy could face a snap-election. Subsequently, if noise continues to grow louder with regard to a potential election, uncertainty could begin to weigh on the broader market with the Bund-BTP vulnerable to widening.

MIB

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

Crude Oil Prices Get Hit to Key Support – More Room to Fall?

Crude Oil Price Talking Points:

  • It was a rough week for oil bulls as the bearish theme took back-over following last week’s fear-driven bid.
  • Oil prices had scaled above resistance last week, but as Tropical Storm Barry was downgraded and fears around supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico calmed, sellers re-grabbed control of oil price action and prices have continued to fall throughout this week.
  • DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Oil, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Technical Forecast for Crude Oil Prices: Bearish

Crude Oil Bears Re-Grab Control

Oil bears got back in the driver’s seat this week, pushing prices below the 60-handle and all the way down for a revisit of 55. While early July had brought a recovery bid, hastened through last week on the prospect of supply disruptions in the Gulf, this week marked a pronounced one-sided move as sellers retained control for much of the period.

Monday’s price action saw the build of a bear flag formation after prices had perched below that key resistance zone that runs from 59.64-60.00. After a quick trip back up to 60 for a resistance check, prices were smashed-lower, breaking below the flag and quickly filling-in both targets looked at in the article, Oil Price Outlook: WTI Crude Oil Price Action Builds Bear Flag.

WTI Crude Oil Hourly Price Chart

WTI Price

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this point, WTI crude oil price action is testing a big zone of support that contains a number of Fibonacci levels. At 55.57 is the 38.2% retracement of the October-December 2018 sell-off. At 54.49 is the 50% marker of the recovery move from that sell-off, spanning from the December low up to the April high; and in between the two is the psychological level of 55, which appears to be helping to stem the bleeding after a brutal week for oil bulls. Collectively, this zone combined with corresponding price action could allow for a move-higher, but the bigger question is whether that bounce has the prospect to turn into something more? More likely, this would be a more attractive theme for short-side stances, looking for that bounce to create a lower-high from which bearish trend strategies could come back into favor.

WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Price Chart

WTI Price

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Taking a further step back on the chart, and that zone of prior support from early-July has started to show as resistance potential. Should this current zone of resistance hold through next week’s open, the door could quickly re-open for short-side trend strategies. This would be a rather aggressive area to look for bearish exposure, particularly considering how aggressively that theme has priced-in. A bit-higher is another area of potential interest for lower-high resistance, and this runs around the same 57.50 area that was looked at coming in the month of June for short-side target potential. Since that scenario played out six weeks ago, a number of support/resistance inflections have shown here, and this keeps this area on the chart as a spot of interest.

Below current price action and should this zone of support around 55 give way, the area around the June swing lows appears attractive, and this runs from 50.54-51.64. Along the way, potential support levels around 53.25 and 52.50 could be used as shorter-term profit targets for near-term strategies.

WTI Crude Oil Eight-Hour Price Chart

Crude Oil Price

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Oil or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Capitol Report: SEC examination of quarterly reporting schedule focuses o…









The Securities and Exchange Commission held a two-part public panel discussion on Thursday to ask again if reporting earnings quarterly promotes “short-termism” — an unhealthy focus on short-term results to the detriment of long-term performance.

Speakers from the investor and public company realms — including representatives from Fidelity Investments and Vanguard Group as well as new public company Uber Technologies Inc.












UBER, -1.21%










 and Nasdaq












NDAQ, -1.37%










 , among several others — discussed the nature, timing, format and frequency of periodic reporting, as well as the relationship between the quarterly and annual SEC filings and the earnings releases they announce to the market, often ahead of official reports.

The SEC had issued a request for public comment on several ideas and potential suggestions as well as open issues last December, and is reopening its solicitation after it originally closed in March.

The SEC’s ongoing initiative is focused on simplifying the production and dissemination of financial information and “relieving any burdens associated with investors’ efforts to compare an earnings release and Form 10-Q to identify information that is new or different,” according to the SEC’s request for comment.

Some companies issue their earnings release before filing their 10-Q with the SEC. MarketWatch has reported, based on academic research, that nearly 70% of public companies are providing fourth-quarter and year-end results up to 16 days before the finalization of the annual audit and filing of the 10-K with the SEC. That can lead to undue pressure on auditors, say the researchers, to avoid any changes to their opinion that contradict the earlier earnings release.

Read: Only a few companies are reporting earnings that are fully audited

One commenter responded to the SEC’s questions by suggesting companies should file their 10-Q simultaneously with any earnings release, reasoning that this would “help investors to be more informed and better able to address issues with management on earnings calls.” The SEC said that other commenters suggested requiring the 10-Q to be filed before earnings releases and earnings calls to allow analysts to digest U.S. GAAP disclosures before receiving earnings release information, which frequently includes non-U.S. GAAP disclosures that don’t follow required accounting practices.

The SEC is requesting additional comment on how it can “alleviate burdens related to Form 10-Q reporting while maintaining investor protection.” For example, the SEC would like to know if it should provide an option for companies to use earnings releases to satisfy the core financial disclosure requirements of Form 10-Q.

Of course, even though the SEC also wants to help companies reduce the time and money they spend complying with quarterly reporting requirements, investors still have to be protected. The ultimate objective is to understand the impact of the SEC’s current requirements on corporate decision making and strategic thinking, “including whether it fosters an inefficient outlook among registrants and market participants by focusing on short-term results,” the SEC says.

See also: BlackBerry violates SEC rules with use of nonstandard metrics

Academic research on short-termism also sometimes supports eliminating quarterly reporting.

Thursday’s panels also talked about how many companies still provide “forward-looking earnings guidance” — detail about management’s expectations of the company’s future financial performance — in the earnings release or on the quarterly earnings call.

Read on: All of MarketWatch’s Called to Account columns























Francine McKenna is a MarketWatch reporter based in Washington, covering financial regulation and legislation from a transparency perspective. She has written about accounting, audit, fraud and corporate governance for publications including Forbes, the Financial Times, Accountancy and the American Banker. McKenna had 30 years of experience at banks and professional-services firms, including at PwC and KPMG, before becoming a full-time writer.


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GBP/USD & EUR/GBP Price Chart Outlook: Flagging at Confluence

GBP PRICE CHART TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

  • Spot GBPUSD and spot EURGBP threaten to re-test key technical levels of confluence
  • The British Pound could rise if the Sterling can catch bid again after dropping to multi-month lows against the US Dollar and Euro, but overarching GBP weakness remains a risk
  • Download the free Q3 GBP Forecast from DailyFX for comprehensive technical and fundamental insight

The British Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to succumb to Brexit risks and political uncertainty surrounding the UK Prime Minister election. GBP weakness was once again reflected by another week of downside in spot GBPUSD and upside in spot EURGBP. Yet, the prospect of GBPUSD rising off year-to-date lows is still in play from a technical perspective with key support showing signs of helping keep the Sterling bid.

GBPUSD PRICE CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (JULY 10, 2016 TO JULY 19, 2019)

Spot GBPUSD Price Chart Technical Analysis

Taking a look at spot GBPUSD from a broader perspective, we can see that the 1.2600 handle has previously served as a serious level of confluence. While increased selling pressure earlier in the month drove the Pound Sterling below this technical level, which appears to have broken the bullish trend line of its upward climb over the last three years, Fibonacci support near 1.2400 provided by the 76.4% retracement of the forex rate’s 2016 low should not be taken lightly. Also, the noticeably long wicks on the weekly candles might suggest demand for spot GBPUSD at this technical support zone which could imply that a bottom is near.

GBPUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 07, 2018 TO JULY 19, 2019)

Spot GBPUSD Price Chart Technical Analysis

As such, a probable scenario may be for spot GBPUSD to remain rangebound between the 1.2400 and 1.2600 price levels over the next week as the currency pair consolidates before making its next big move. Find out how to use IG Client Sentiment to identify potential range trading opportunities.

Spot GBPUSD near-term selling pressure could be waning as suggested by the RSI “oversold” level of 30 being defended adamantly. That said, the British Pound’s overwhelming downtrend risks pushing spot prices even lower. A drop below the 1.2400 price level, if held, could put spot GBPUSD in ‘freefall mode’ and open up the door to 1.2000 – or even parity with the dollar as warned by Sir Richard Branson – if selling is sustained over the longer term. Looking to the upside, however, a push above 1.2600 could see spot GBUPUSD bulls potentially target the 38.2% Fib retracement near 1.2800.

EUR/GBP PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 18, 2018 TO JULY 19, 2019)

Spot EURGBP Price Chart Technical Analysis

Turning to spot EURGBP, the Pound Sterling is also coming off its weakest level against the Euro in 7-months since skyrocketing above the 0.9000 handle this past week. Although, a hard rejection at 0.9050 seems to solidify the price level as a noteworthy zone of technical resistance which threatens to keep spot EURGBP upside limited.

A retest of this area of confluence could serve constructive before providing spot EURGBP bears with enough conviction to begin reversing the recent uptrend. Although, with the Euro at risk ahead of the July ECB meeting, spot EURGBP bears could be provided with an opportunity to push below Fib support from the 76.4% retracement of the currency pair’s year-to-date trading range.

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

US & Global Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Today, we are going to share with you some incredible charts that highlight why we believe all traders and investors need to stay keenly aware of the potential for very explosive moves over the next 6 to 12+ months.  We’ve authored a number of articles about super-cycles, Gold, Oil and dozens of other symbols suggesting that a deeper and more complicated economic shift is taking place throughout the world.  We’ve been following the trail of money and investments for many months and attempting to map out what we believe will happen in the future with our proprietary predictive modeling systems and adaptive learning utilities.  Get ready for some crazy price ranges and a big move in the markets over the next 30+ days.

Right now, we believe the US stock market is poised for another attempt to move briefly higher as a flood of earnings hits the news wires next week.  We are confident that the US stock market will attempt a move higher based on our predictive modeling systems and other technical analysis tools.  We want to warn you that this upside move will likely become a “wash-out high” price rotation where price rallies briefly, stalls, then reverses back to the downside fairly quickly.  We believe this “wash-out high” price pattern will set up and execute before August 5th or so.  Be prepared as this move may sucker in a number of new long traders just before it breaks lower.

I highlighted the August 19th date (+/- 5 days) as a key inflection point/date in the markets.  This is when we believe the US stock market may break down and when we believe a new price trend will attempt to establish.  We are concerned the US stock market may break downward fairly aggressively based on our super-cycle research and predictive modeling research – causing traders to panic slightly.

Our expectations are that the US stock market may fall as the global markets collapse is warranted by a number of factors: the US Presidential election, global trade issues, global credit issues, weakening economic data throughout the globe and lofty price valuation levels within the US stock market.  We believe a “price revaluation event” is the most likely outcome because of these factors and we believe the event will align with historical price patterns related to the US Presidential election cycle.



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Weekly chart of the Transportation Index

This Weekly chart of the Transportation Index highlights the Volatility Range our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting.  The support level near $10,400 is key to understanding what to expect from the markets going forward.  This level is critical and when price breaks below this level, our researchers believe the TRAN will breakdown below the recent base near 9715 and continue much lower.

We don’t believe any upside price advance that takes place right now has any real momentum behind it. In fact, if you look at this historical chart of the trans, industrials, and small-cap sectors, we have seen a spike in price in these groups just for a week before a new bear market starts. This setup is identical to the 2007/08 top, so check out these charts here.

VIX Daily Chart Expectations

This VIX Daily chart highlights what we expect to happen over the next 10 to 15+ days.  We expect earnings to continue to deliver near expected results with a few bumps here and there.  We do believe some forward guidance revisions will create some shocks in the market going forward, but we don’t believe these guidance levels will present any real panic event until closer to the end of July.  This is why we believe the VIX will continue to move near recent lows for another 7+ days, then start a mild upside move near the last week in July before breaking higher with an explosive upside move setting up in very late July or early August.

This upside spike in the VIX will more likely be the result of the “wash-out high” rotation pattern that we suggested above. If you have been taking advantage of the perpetual short trade on UVXY where you can earn 20-45% a month the past 10 years, well that gravy train may be over soon, at least until the next bull market starts in 8-24 months from now. I’ll go into more detail on this in a future article.

Dow Jones (YM) Weekly chart

This Dow Jones (YM) Weekly chart paints a very clear picture of what we are expecting to see happen.  7 to 10+ days of moderate upside price activity creating the “wash-out high” price pattern where the YM trades near the $27,725 level (key resistance).  Once that “wash-out high” pattern is set up, we expect a moderate downside price rotation toward the $25,800 level.  This is the move that will prompt a VIX Spike and begin a “shake out” price move.

After that, brief support will create an opportunity where traders may consider a “buy the dip” entry before a deeper and more aggressive downside move begins near Mid August.  This is the August 19 Price Peak call that we initiated a few weeks ago.  We believe this move is already in the process of setting up based on our predictive modeling tools, the pre-election year cycle, and the decade cycle as seen here. We are alerting skilled traders so they can prepare for this setup.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, the opportunities for skilled technical traders over the next 16+ months is incredible.  Huge price swings, incredible trends, big rotations and 20%, 40%, 60%+ profits to be had if you know what to trade and when.  These types of stock market rotations are perfect for skilled technical traders like us and we want to help you prepare for and trade these opportunities.

This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Fed Drives Next Leg Higher

Gold Price Chart

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

Q3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Gold Boosted by a Variety of Positive Drivers

I remain bullish for gold in the short-term although current levels need to be consolidated before the next leg higher. The fundamental backdrop for the precious remains positive, with the latest boost coming from dovish commentary from NY Fed vice chair John Williams who said that the central bank should stay ahead of the curve especially if the data shows the economy weakening. While these comments were subsequently said to be from academic research, the fact that a major Fed official voiced them gives a clue into the central bank’s thinking. The next FOMC meeting is at the end of July with a 25-basis point now fully priced-in while market odds of a 50bp cut have risen sharply.

Gold has also been in demand from central banks over the past few weeks, China and Russia in particular, who have been diversifying away from the US dollar and the current trend for central banks to weaken their currency to gain competitiveness. With gold priced in US dollars, any weakness in the currency gives a boost to the price of the precious metal. Large swathes of the global bond market also now reside in negative yield territory, weakening currencies further and making fixed income, a traditional risk-off asset class, unattractive for investors.

In addition, global tensions continue with the US-China trade dispute still unresolved, and with the US now training its sights on the EU, while the US and Iran remain at loggerheads, adding to the global risk-off trade.

Against this backdrop, and with fears that equity valuations are becoming stretched, gold’s safe haven status has become attractive yet again and this will continue to underpin any move higher over the short- to medium-term.

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Gold Price Daily Chart (October 2018 – July 19, 2019)

GOLD

The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows traders are 63.4% net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.73 to 1. The number of traders’ net-long is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 18.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

Crude Oil Breaks Down – Target $40

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our incredible ADL predictive modeling system predicted a moderate price anomaly on July 10th, 2019 in Crude Oil.  We wrote about this oil set up on July 10th. Within this article, we suggested that Crude Oil would rotate to levels near $47~$48 rather quickly, then find some moderate support in December and January where support is likely to be found near $45 to $50. After that, the price of Oil should weaken dramatically where price could fall to levels below $30 ppb on extreme price weakness.

We are writing to you today to suggest that Oil prices may attempt to find very brief support near $55.25 as this level represents a key price trigger level which acts as support/resistance.  After such a big downside move for the week, it is our opinion that Oil will briefly hold near this $55.25 level as oil tries to hold support for a couple of days.

We believe the selling may abate or weaken slightly early next week as earnings continue to hit the news cycle and future expectations are adjusted based on this data.  Quite a bit of data will be released next week with the worlds biggest firms releasing Q2 data and Q3 expectations.  We believe this news/data will result in a brief pause in the decline of oil prices and allow traders to set up for the next move lower.

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights the downside price action this week as oil collapsed from the $60 upside target called from our early June oil video forecast. The chart below also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool that is currently suggesting support will be found just above $51 ppb – which is aligned with the previous price bottom in early June 2019.  Mild resistance is also found near $56.70 (the BLUE projected price level).  This level will likely act as a “congestion range” as price rotates and attempts another downside leg.



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This Weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the bigger picture for oil.  The recent breakdown in price has just crossed the Bearish Fibonacci trigger level (RED LINE near $55.20) and this breach suggests the downside price move may just be starting. Ultimate downside targets near $40 to $44 are where we believe the price will find support over the next 30 to 60+ days.  Beyond these levels, the price may continue much lower and eventually breach the sub $30 level in Q1 or Q2 of 2020, which would likely be a strong cause of the pending bear market.

Concluding Thoughts:

Any deep downside price move like this in Crude Oil would suggest that economic weakness and supply/demand issues are the root causes of a Crude Oil price collapse.

If the downside move continues as we are suggesting, many foreign nations will come under extreme economic pressures and currency levels/support could become threatened as the foundation for many oil-based economies will begin to crumble.  This could create an extreme debt/credit issue for many nations throughout the planet and could push the US Dollar well above $100.  The implications for extended trends and trades is incredible when you consider the scope of the economic shift that will take place if Crude Oil does begin trading below $30 in early 2020.

$30-$40 crude oil could spark or further deeping the pending bear market which has been a long time coming. Almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start so get ready. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.  The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

San Francisco 49ers coach Katie Sowers on how she landed her dream job









When Katie Sowers was growing up, she loved football and played as much as she could. She played in a women’s tackle league when she got out of college and dreamed of coaching in the NFL. But she didn’t know if that dream could become a reality until she saw a woman get a full-time assistant coaching job in the NBA in 2014.

“I always knew I wanted to coach, but I didn’t know I could coach in the NFL until I saw Becky Hammon become a coach in the NBA. I had this weird feeling then, knowing it was going to happen. I even posted on Instagram: ‘NFL, I’m coming for you.’ It’s hard to explain, but I was positive I was going to make it happen,” Sowers recently told MarketWatch.

But at the time she was working as the athletic director for the city of Kansas City and coaching a fifth grade girls’ basketball team. How did her next employer become the NFL?

“I always preach that you never know who is watching, so I put everything into that team,” Sowers says of her fifth grade hoop players.

And it turns out that a gentleman watching them play was Scott Pioli, a former general manager of the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs. His daughter was on the team.
























Pioli was impressed with how Sowers coached. The two began talking and he learned how passionate she was about coaching in the NFL. When he became the assistant general manager of the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons, he offered her a coaching internship during the preseason as part of the Bill Walsh NFL Coaching Diversity Fellowship. Pioli kept her on as a scout, and she worked closely with him and the coaching staff in 2016.

Sowers, 32, grew up loving football, but didn’t see playing on the boys’ high school team as an option, so she played sports that could help her get an athletic scholarship to college. Which she did, for basketball. After college, she played professional tackle football as a quarterback for the Women’s Football Alliance, and she played for Team USA in 2013.

She also dedicated a lot of her time to studying coaches, knowing she wanted to be one. Her favorite coach today is Hammon, who is an assistant coach with the San Antonio Spurs, and one of her favorites all-time is Bill Walsh. “To be honest, though, I always looked up to my dad. How players related to him and how he changed their lives as players and as people. I wanted to have that kind of impact.”

Her dad coached the women’s basketball team at Bethel College, and she spent a lot of time with him and his teams.



















“We find it so odd when women lead men, but women have been teaching men for years. We have to normalize it.”


Katie Sowers







After working with the Falcons, she went to the San Francisco 49ers, where she now works with wide receivers as a full-time assistant coach.

“I was looking for a full-time job and wanted to prove I was valuable. We had a preseason game in Kansas City and it was supposed to be the last day of my internship. John Lynch — the general manager of the 49ers — said, ‘We want to keep you on full-time.’ My family was on the sidelines and I went over to them and I almost had tears in my eyes.”

How’d she make that happen? To prove her value to the team, she says she didn’t depend on others to teach her things. She took initiative and responsibility for where she wanted to be, something her father taught her when she was younger. For example, she took all the team’s offensive concepts and created a packet for them — something that had never been done before, and something new players coming into the league now ask for.

Sowers says that when she first applied for the NFL’s Diversity Coaching Fellowship, there was nowhere to say on the form that she was a woman. “I felt worthless, even though I’d been the MVP for team USA and had been an All-American athlete. And she says once when she was a coach for the Falcons, someone asked her if she was the coach of the team’s cheerleading team. “They couldn’t wrap their head around it, but we’re getting there.” In fact, the NFL has since revamped the fellowship application to include women, and she points out that the NFL has made a lot of progress hiring more women and minorities to coach in recent years. “I think we’ll get to a point when a woman is hired and it’s not a headline,” she says.
























There were three women with full-time coaching jobs in the NFL last year, according to ESPN. In addition to Sowers, Kelsey Martinez was with the Oakland Raiders and Phoebe Schecter was with the Buffalo Bills. In addition, seven other women had internships with NFL teams. Though it’s been reported that Sowers is the only full-timer to coach for more than one season.

“We find it so odd when women lead men, but women have been teaching men for years. We have to normalize it,” says Sowers, whose mother was a teacher.

Sowers is also the first openly gay coach in the history of the NFL. That became a big story when a reporter asked her if it was okay to mention that she had a girlfriend. “I didn’t think anything of it; I’d been out for a long time. But the next day the story blew up,” she says, adding that she chooses to live a vulnerable and open life. “Being open is living with integrity,” she says. “I can’t be the best coach I can be without that.”

She also says that after the story ran, a former NFL coach came up to her and told her he was gay. He said he had struggled with it and was so happy to see her come out. “I realized then that it was important that article came out,” she says.

On today’s NFL

When it comes to predicting a college player’s success in the NFL, Sowers says she evaluates route running and what offense the college team ran. She also wants to see explosiveness and whether they’re coachable and internally motivated — with a desire to be the best version of themselves. “Relying on combine numbers is the safe way out,” she says, adding that to find diamonds in the rough you have to interview players and look past the numbers.

What’s the most important skill for a wide receiver to achieve success in the NFL? “Being explosive and having aggressive hands — the attitude that that ball is mine, and no one else’s.”

And does she think a woman will be a head coach in a men’s professional league in the next 20 years? “Absolutely. No doubt,” Sowers says. “It wouldn’t surprise me if Becky Hammon gets a head coaching job in the NBA in the next five years.”























Steven Kutz is a senior editor. He edits ‘The MarketWatch Q&A,’ as well as ‘The Best New Ideas In…’ feature and the columns ‘Buy This, Not That’ and ‘Upgrade.’ He also writes about athletes and money and the business side of sports. You can follow him on Twitter @StevenKutz.


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COT Report: Gold, Silver & WTI Crude bets rise. US Dollar Index bets edge up

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are this week’s links to the latest Commitment of Traders data changes that were released on Friday.

This week in the COT data, we saw the USD Index speculator bets edge a bit higher and gain for a third week. Canadian dollar speculator positions rose sharply and the CAD position is in bullish territory for a third week (the highest level since February 13th of 2018).

Speculators continued to add to their bearish bets for the British pound sterling for a fifth straight week to a total of -76,357 contracts. Euro positions, meanwhile, saw less bearish bets and the overall position is at the least bearish level since October.



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Precious metals speculators added to their bullish bets in Gold and Silver this week. Gold positions bumped up a little bit higher after a down week last week while Silver bets surged by over +12,000 contracts and is now at the highest level since February.

Copper speculators lessened their bearish bets this week for the first time in about a month. The copper position has been extremely bearish over the past few months as speculator bets had fallen for eleven out of the previous twelve weeks before this week’s rebound.

The 10-Year Bond positions went sharply more bearish this week after being virtually unchanged last week. Speculator bearish bets are back above the -300,000 net contract level for the first time in a month.

The WTI Crude oil speculators raised their bullish bets for the fourth time out of the past five weeks and pushed their current standing above the +400,000 net contract position for the first time since June 4th.

Finally, VIX speculators continue to push their bearish sentiment further and further as short bets have risen now for six straight weeks and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks.


US Dollar Index Speculators edge bullish bets higher, Canadian Dollar bets gain sharply

Large currency speculators boosted their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. See full article.


WTI Crude Oil Speculators continue to advance their bullish bets this week

The large speculator contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 423,762 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 33,613 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets higher this week

Large speculator contracts of the 10-Year Bond futures totaled a net position of -347,222 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -58,386 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Gold Speculators edged their bullish bets slightly higher this week

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the Gold futures totaled a net position of 245,501 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 738 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.

 


VIX Speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for 6th week

Large stock market volatility speculator contracts of the VIX futures totaled a net position of -141,797 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -9,615 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Silver Speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets after 2 down weeks

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the silver futures totaled a net position of 37,425 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 12,274 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Copper Speculators trimmed bearish bets for 1st time in 4 weeks

Metals speculator contracts of the copper futures totaled a net position of -31,943 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 8,044 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

US Dollar Index Speculators edge bullish bets higher, Canadian Dollar bets gain sharply

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators once again lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly increase of 276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,056 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position falling by -27 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,452 contracts) while the gross bearish position dropped a little further by -303 contracts for the week (to a total of 9,120 contracts) .

Large currency speculators pushed their bullish bets for the US Dollar index higher for a third consecutive week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The US dollar index positions have remained in bullish territory now for sixty-two straight weeks and have continued to stay above the +20,000 net contract level for the past fifty-two weeks.



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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Canadian dollar speculator positions jumped again this week as CAD bets have now gained for four straight weeks and by a total of +59,035 contracts in that period. The spec bets have risen by at least +11,000 contracts in three out of the past four weeks. The current bullish standing is at the highest level since February 13th of 2018 (a span of 74 weeks). Prior to turning bullish a couple of weeks ago, the CAD speculator position had been in bearish territory for sixty-six consecutive weeks dating back to March of 2018.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (276 weekly change in contracts), euro (4,514 contracts), Canadian dollar (11,738 contracts), Australian dollar (1,431 contracts), New Zealand dollar (4,886 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,739 contracts)..

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the British pound sterling (-3,375 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-7,729 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,304 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Euro speculators continued to trim their bearish bets this week for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. Speculator positions have now gone from over -100,000 contracts on May 21st to -31,351 contracts this week. This current standing for speculative positions is the lowest bearish level since October 30th of 2018.

Speculators once again added to their bearish bets for the British pound sterling for a fifth straight week. The GBP speculator positions had been in bearish territory from June of 2018 until April 16th 2019 when bets landed in a small bullish position of just 922 contracts. Since then, however, speculator sentiment soured again and has not looked back with positions going from 922 contracts on April 16th to a total of -76,357 contracts this week in just a span of fourteen weeks.

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,865 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -76,357 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly fall of -3,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,982 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of -11,380 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decline of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,651 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,732 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,428 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of 20,964 contracts this week. This was a boost of 11,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,226 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -52,576 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,007 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -17,319 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 4,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,205 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of 128,121 contracts this week. This was a weekly rise of 1,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,382 net contracts.


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).