UK house prices pick up in early 2019, but outlook subdued

British house prices rose slightly more quickly in the first three months of 2019 in annual terms but growth is likely remain subdued, given Brexit uncertainty and high property prices, mortgage lender Halifax said on Friday.

Compared with the same period of last year, prices rose by 3.2 percent, faster than a rise of 2.8 percent in the three months to February.

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to an annual rise of 2.3 percent for the first quarter.

Last week, data from rival mortgage lender Nationwide also showed house prices picked up a bit of speed.

But Britain’s housing market remains weak, especially in London, as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to find a way to leave the European Union with a transition deal to cushion the shock to the economy.

Shortly before the Brexit referendum in 2016, house prices were rising by about 10 percent a year, according to Halifax.

The lender said that prices in March, in monthly terms, fell by 1.6 percent after jumping by 6.0 percent in February.

Halifax’s index has tended to be more volatile than other measures of house prices of late.

Reuters

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XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The pair XAU/USD is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of  1280.14.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant from corrections above the level of  1280.14 with a target of  1385.94.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of   1280.14 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of  1244.40 – 1194.20.

Analysis: Supposedly, the third wave of senior level iii of C continues forming on the daily time frame. Apparently the fifth wave of junior level (v) of iii of C started developing on the H4 time frame. Presumably the wave i of (v) has been formed and the correction ii of (v) finished forming on the H1 time frame. If this assumption is correct, the pair will go on growing to the level of 1385.94. The level  1280.14 is critical in this scenario.




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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

USD/JPY: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The pair USD/JPY is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 109.70.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant above the level of 109.70 with a target of 113.00 – 114.00. 

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 109.70 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels at 108.31 – 107.44. 

Analysis: Supposedly, the wave of senior level (C) of B continues developing on the daily time frame, with the wave 2 of (C) formed inside. Supposedly, the local correction finished forming as wave 2 of (C) on the H4 time frame and the first counter-trend wave of junior level i of 3 of (C) has formed. Apparently, a descending correction finished developing as the second wave  ii of 3 on the H1 time frame and the wave iii of 3started forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 113.00 – 114.00. The level  109.70 is critical in this scenario.




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Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

USD/JPY: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

GBP/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The pair GBP/USD is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.2955.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant from corrections above the level of 1.2955 with a target of 1.3429 – 1.3626.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of  1.2955 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2398 – 1.2169.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the second wave (2) finished developing on the daily frame in the form of a zigzag. Supposedly, the first counter-trend wave 1 of (3) is forming in the form of a wedge on the H4 time frame. Apparently, a local correction in the form of the fourth wave of junior level  iv of 1 finished forming on the H1 time frame and the wave v of 1 started developing. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels 1.3429 – 1.3626. The level 1.2955 is critical in this scenario.




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Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

GBP/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The pair EUR/USD is still likely to fall Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.1275.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 1.1275 with a target of 1.1120 – 1.1000.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1275 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to the levels of 1.1332 – 1.1447.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the wave (2) continues developing on the daily time frame with the wave C of (2) developing within. Presumably the third wave iii of C is developing on the H4 time frame, with the ascending correction (ii) of iii finished inside. Apparently, the wave (iii) of iii of C is forming on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to fall to 1.1120 – 1.1000. The level 1.1275 is critical in this scenario.




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Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

USD/CHF: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The pair USD/CHF is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9892.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant from corrections above the level of  0.9892 with a target of 1.0147 – 1.0300. 

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below a level of 0.9892 will allow the pair to continue declining to a level of 0.9709 and further below.

Analysis: Supposedly, the third wave of senior level (3) continues to form on the daily time frame. The first wave of junior level i of 1 of (3) has been formed and a local correction finished developing in the form of wave ii of 1 of (3) on the H4 time frame. Apparently, the third wave iii of 1 of (3) starts developing on the H1 time frame, with the first counter-trend wave (i) of iii forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels 1.0147 – 1.0300 in the medium term. The level  0.9892 is critical in this scenario.




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  • Telegram channel with high-quality analytics, Forex reviews, training articles, and other useful things for traders https://t.me/liteforex

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Price chart of USDCHF in real time mode

USD/CHF: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/04/2019 – 12/04/2019

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

Financial Commission Launchs PAMM Accreditation Scheme

The Financial Commission (FC) – a self-regulating body for the retail trading market – announced the launch of a new accreditation scheme this Friday.

According to a document released by the FC, the new scheme will certify the percent allocation management modules (PAMMs) offered by different brokers.

The iFX EXPO is Back in Limassol!

More popular amongst offshore brokers, PAMMs allow traders to allocate a certain amount of cash to investment managers.

Managers then invest those funds and, if they make profit, they take a commission and pay out – in proportion to the amount that they put in – to the investors that gave them money.

The purpose of such a system is to allow inexperienced traders to invest funds without trading their money themselves.

Of course, such systems are subject to manipulation and a lack of transparency, particularly on the part of offshore brokers, makes them open to scammers.

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A new PAMM rating system

That’s where the FC likely hopes to step in.

The regulatory body says that it has been receiving requests from retail traders, who want a better understanding of how brokers’ PAMMs operate.

Thus, the FC will review the technical setup of a broker’s PAMM accounts.

Alongside that, the regulatory organisation will examine how funds are allocated to traders and investment managers and how the latter’s trading results are reported.

Finally, there will also be a review of a broker’s PAMM security and know-your-customer procedures and any rating systems that have been put in place to govern investment manager’s performances.

If, after the FC has reviewed these things, it believes a broker’s PAMM setup is valid, then it will issue a certificate to a broker which will last for one year.

Such a system should help to alleviate the fears of some retail traders and give them an idea of what firms are legitimate and which are not.

Exclusive: ADSS Grows as MENA & Asian Results Offset ESMA

Last year has been quite a challenge for the majority of industry players. The market changes in Europe prompted brokers to undertake a significant regional diversification. While many companies have been preparing for the market shift for some time, not that many managed to strike the right balance in terms of geographical diversification.

One of the companies that actually managed to prepare well enough for the big market changes of 2018 turns out to be ADSS. The firm shared with Finance Magnates some exclusive figures as the firm’s Global Head of Sales, Jason Hughes elaborated on the latest performance for the firm and its strategy in the coming quarters.

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Growth in 2018

As already mentioned above, ADSS managed to grow some of the key metrics for brokers in the industry. For starters the brokerage business excelled in MENA and Asia, leading to an offset of the difficult market conditions in Europe. The number of ADSS’ clients increased by 7.2 percent in 2018, while trading volumes rose by 5.1 percent when compared to 2017.

“Over the past few years, we have focused on diversifying our business model with the launch of Asset and Wealth Management, both of which added significant business in 2018. This helped grow our reputation as a leader in this sector,” explained Mr Hughes.

The main focus of the company for 2019 appears to be to continue investing in talented hires. The company is also committed to continuing to invest into in-house technologies and new growth business opportunities and sponsorship initiatives.

While the goal of the company is to create one of the largest independent global brokerage businesses, the core of the business of ADSS has always been about investing and trading a range of asset classes.

Higher shared that the company will continue to prioritize these areas of the business and will provide focused and improved services for clients that allow them to make better-informed choices.

Asset Management & Proprietary Tech

As ADSS has diversified its brokerage through the development of Wealth and Asset Management (WAM) portfolios through ADS Investment Solutions (the ADSS Group Wealth and Asset Management arm), the company also aims to harness the regional strength of the UAE and local markets.

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At present, the company is split between institutional, professional and retail segments. Over the past year, ADSS reports having increased its institutional clients base tenfold. Over 2018, they accounted for 45 percent of total volumes.

The company’s proprietary systems and platforms are also an important part of the firm’s business. Used by institutional and professional traders alike, the share of total volumes transacted via the proprietary OREX platform amounted to almost 40 percent.

“Client usage of the platform experienced double-digit growth compared to 2017. This clearly highlights the increasing adoption of ADSS’s technology by our clients. But offering our clients choice is also important and our multi-platform approach gives them options,” shared Mr. Hughes.

The Head of Sales of ADSS says that investing into the company’s own proprietary technology gives the firm the flexibility to quickly adapt systems and functionality to gain an advantage in the market, while white-label solutions offer access to the best industry benchmarked systems.

Regulatory Impact and M&A Opportunities

While the bar has clearly been raised for the industry for pretty much every brokerage company, the management of ADSS continues to be focused on organic growth. According to Hughes, the regulatory changes for the industry are a short term difficulty that will produce a medium and long-term benefit.

“New regulations will normalize and standardize future services offered to clients and will create a level playing field across the industry. We are well prepared for and welcome these regulatory changes and we fully understand and support the overall outcome of protecting our clients,” Hughes elaborated.

While the ESMA changes are pretty well covered, ADSS shared with Finance Magnates that Middle Eastern regulators have been fully engaged with the recent FINCA and OECD reviews. Both initiatives are aiming to help the development of the markets and appear to be essential for the region as it continues to mature and grow.

“We welcome the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that covers the marketing and promotion of investment funds. It has been signed by UAE regulators; it’s a game changer and long awaited. This will lead to increased cooperation between financial centers, which is positive news for all clients,” elaborated Hughes.

While the market seems to be ripe for M&A opportunities, ADSS continues to be focused on organic growth since day one. Nevertheless, the firm is not planning to ignore any good opportunities if such arise.

EUR/USD Rate to Hold 2019 Range on Another Dismal NFP Report

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the economy is anticipated to add 180K jobs in March.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of a robust labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to preserve a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘overall conditions remaining favorable,’ and the central bank may stick to the sidelines at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. pledge to ‘be patient in assessing the need for any change in the stance of policy.’

In turn, a print of 180K or greater may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar, but another below-forecast print may spark a short-term rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE to cover the U.S. NFP report.

Impact that the U.S. NFP report had on EUR/USD during the last release

February 2019 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of eurusd 5-minute chart

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased a meager 20K in February after expanding a revised 311K the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate narrowed to 3.8% from 4.0% per annum during the same period even as the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 63.2% for the second consecutive month. A deeper look at the report showed Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 3.4% from a revised 3.1% in January despite forecasts for a 3.3% print.

The U.S. dollar struggled to hold its ground following the batch of mixed data prints, with EUR/USD grinding higher throughout the day to close at 1.1232. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

  • The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains clouded with mixed signals as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap bearish formations from earlier this year after trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.1176).
  • Nevertheless, the failed attempt to test the 2019-low (1.1176) along with the lack of momentum to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) may spur range-bound conditions in EUR/USD, with a break/close back above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region raising the risk for a move towards 1.1340 (38.2% expansion).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% retracement), which largely lines up with the March-high (1.1448).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.