US & Global Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Today, we are going to share with you some incredible charts that highlight why we believe all traders and investors need to stay keenly aware of the potential for very explosive moves over the next 6 to 12+ months.  We’ve authored a number of articles about super-cycles, Gold, Oil and dozens of other symbols suggesting that a deeper and more complicated economic shift is taking place throughout the world.  We’ve been following the trail of money and investments for many months and attempting to map out what we believe will happen in the future with our proprietary predictive modeling systems and adaptive learning utilities.  Get ready for some crazy price ranges and a big move in the markets over the next 30+ days.

Right now, we believe the US stock market is poised for another attempt to move briefly higher as a flood of earnings hits the news wires next week.  We are confident that the US stock market will attempt a move higher based on our predictive modeling systems and other technical analysis tools.  We want to warn you that this upside move will likely become a “wash-out high” price rotation where price rallies briefly, stalls, then reverses back to the downside fairly quickly.  We believe this “wash-out high” price pattern will set up and execute before August 5th or so.  Be prepared as this move may sucker in a number of new long traders just before it breaks lower.

I highlighted the August 19th date (+/- 5 days) as a key inflection point/date in the markets.  This is when we believe the US stock market may break down and when we believe a new price trend will attempt to establish.  We are concerned the US stock market may break downward fairly aggressively based on our super-cycle research and predictive modeling research – causing traders to panic slightly.

Our expectations are that the US stock market may fall as the global markets collapse is warranted by a number of factors: the US Presidential election, global trade issues, global credit issues, weakening economic data throughout the globe and lofty price valuation levels within the US stock market.  We believe a “price revaluation event” is the most likely outcome because of these factors and we believe the event will align with historical price patterns related to the US Presidential election cycle.



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Weekly chart of the Transportation Index

This Weekly chart of the Transportation Index highlights the Volatility Range our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting.  The support level near $10,400 is key to understanding what to expect from the markets going forward.  This level is critical and when price breaks below this level, our researchers believe the TRAN will breakdown below the recent base near 9715 and continue much lower.

We don’t believe any upside price advance that takes place right now has any real momentum behind it. In fact, if you look at this historical chart of the trans, industrials, and small-cap sectors, we have seen a spike in price in these groups just for a week before a new bear market starts. This setup is identical to the 2007/08 top, so check out these charts here.

VIX Daily Chart Expectations

This VIX Daily chart highlights what we expect to happen over the next 10 to 15+ days.  We expect earnings to continue to deliver near expected results with a few bumps here and there.  We do believe some forward guidance revisions will create some shocks in the market going forward, but we don’t believe these guidance levels will present any real panic event until closer to the end of July.  This is why we believe the VIX will continue to move near recent lows for another 7+ days, then start a mild upside move near the last week in July before breaking higher with an explosive upside move setting up in very late July or early August.

This upside spike in the VIX will more likely be the result of the “wash-out high” rotation pattern that we suggested above. If you have been taking advantage of the perpetual short trade on UVXY where you can earn 20-45% a month the past 10 years, well that gravy train may be over soon, at least until the next bull market starts in 8-24 months from now. I’ll go into more detail on this in a future article.

Dow Jones (YM) Weekly chart

This Dow Jones (YM) Weekly chart paints a very clear picture of what we are expecting to see happen.  7 to 10+ days of moderate upside price activity creating the “wash-out high” price pattern where the YM trades near the $27,725 level (key resistance).  Once that “wash-out high” pattern is set up, we expect a moderate downside price rotation toward the $25,800 level.  This is the move that will prompt a VIX Spike and begin a “shake out” price move.

After that, brief support will create an opportunity where traders may consider a “buy the dip” entry before a deeper and more aggressive downside move begins near Mid August.  This is the August 19 Price Peak call that we initiated a few weeks ago.  We believe this move is already in the process of setting up based on our predictive modeling tools, the pre-election year cycle, and the decade cycle as seen here. We are alerting skilled traders so they can prepare for this setup.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, the opportunities for skilled technical traders over the next 16+ months is incredible.  Huge price swings, incredible trends, big rotations and 20%, 40%, 60%+ profits to be had if you know what to trade and when.  These types of stock market rotations are perfect for skilled technical traders like us and we want to help you prepare for and trade these opportunities.

This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

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Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

Crude Oil Breaks Down – Target $40

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our incredible ADL predictive modeling system predicted a moderate price anomaly on July 10th, 2019 in Crude Oil.  We wrote about this oil set up on July 10th. Within this article, we suggested that Crude Oil would rotate to levels near $47~$48 rather quickly, then find some moderate support in December and January where support is likely to be found near $45 to $50. After that, the price of Oil should weaken dramatically where price could fall to levels below $30 ppb on extreme price weakness.

We are writing to you today to suggest that Oil prices may attempt to find very brief support near $55.25 as this level represents a key price trigger level which acts as support/resistance.  After such a big downside move for the week, it is our opinion that Oil will briefly hold near this $55.25 level as oil tries to hold support for a couple of days.

We believe the selling may abate or weaken slightly early next week as earnings continue to hit the news cycle and future expectations are adjusted based on this data.  Quite a bit of data will be released next week with the worlds biggest firms releasing Q2 data and Q3 expectations.  We believe this news/data will result in a brief pause in the decline of oil prices and allow traders to set up for the next move lower.

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights the downside price action this week as oil collapsed from the $60 upside target called from our early June oil video forecast. The chart below also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool that is currently suggesting support will be found just above $51 ppb – which is aligned with the previous price bottom in early June 2019.  Mild resistance is also found near $56.70 (the BLUE projected price level).  This level will likely act as a “congestion range” as price rotates and attempts another downside leg.



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This Weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the bigger picture for oil.  The recent breakdown in price has just crossed the Bearish Fibonacci trigger level (RED LINE near $55.20) and this breach suggests the downside price move may just be starting. Ultimate downside targets near $40 to $44 are where we believe the price will find support over the next 30 to 60+ days.  Beyond these levels, the price may continue much lower and eventually breach the sub $30 level in Q1 or Q2 of 2020, which would likely be a strong cause of the pending bear market.

Concluding Thoughts:

Any deep downside price move like this in Crude Oil would suggest that economic weakness and supply/demand issues are the root causes of a Crude Oil price collapse.

If the downside move continues as we are suggesting, many foreign nations will come under extreme economic pressures and currency levels/support could become threatened as the foundation for many oil-based economies will begin to crumble.  This could create an extreme debt/credit issue for many nations throughout the planet and could push the US Dollar well above $100.  The implications for extended trends and trades is incredible when you consider the scope of the economic shift that will take place if Crude Oil does begin trading below $30 in early 2020.

$30-$40 crude oil could spark or further deeping the pending bear market which has been a long time coming. Almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start so get ready. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.  The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

COT Report: Gold, Silver & WTI Crude bets rise. US Dollar Index bets edge up

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are this week’s links to the latest Commitment of Traders data changes that were released on Friday.

This week in the COT data, we saw the USD Index speculator bets edge a bit higher and gain for a third week. Canadian dollar speculator positions rose sharply and the CAD position is in bullish territory for a third week (the highest level since February 13th of 2018).

Speculators continued to add to their bearish bets for the British pound sterling for a fifth straight week to a total of -76,357 contracts. Euro positions, meanwhile, saw less bearish bets and the overall position is at the least bearish level since October.



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Precious metals speculators added to their bullish bets in Gold and Silver this week. Gold positions bumped up a little bit higher after a down week last week while Silver bets surged by over +12,000 contracts and is now at the highest level since February.

Copper speculators lessened their bearish bets this week for the first time in about a month. The copper position has been extremely bearish over the past few months as speculator bets had fallen for eleven out of the previous twelve weeks before this week’s rebound.

The 10-Year Bond positions went sharply more bearish this week after being virtually unchanged last week. Speculator bearish bets are back above the -300,000 net contract level for the first time in a month.

The WTI Crude oil speculators raised their bullish bets for the fourth time out of the past five weeks and pushed their current standing above the +400,000 net contract position for the first time since June 4th.

Finally, VIX speculators continue to push their bearish sentiment further and further as short bets have risen now for six straight weeks and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks.


US Dollar Index Speculators edge bullish bets higher, Canadian Dollar bets gain sharply

Large currency speculators boosted their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. See full article.


WTI Crude Oil Speculators continue to advance their bullish bets this week

The large speculator contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 423,762 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 33,613 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets higher this week

Large speculator contracts of the 10-Year Bond futures totaled a net position of -347,222 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -58,386 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Gold Speculators edged their bullish bets slightly higher this week

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the Gold futures totaled a net position of 245,501 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 738 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.

 


VIX Speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for 6th week

Large stock market volatility speculator contracts of the VIX futures totaled a net position of -141,797 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -9,615 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Silver Speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets after 2 down weeks

Large precious metals speculator contracts of the silver futures totaled a net position of 37,425 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 12,274 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Copper Speculators trimmed bearish bets for 1st time in 4 weeks

Metals speculator contracts of the copper futures totaled a net position of -31,943 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of 8,044 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article.


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

US Dollar Index Speculators edge bullish bets higher, Canadian Dollar bets gain sharply

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators once again lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly increase of 276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,056 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position falling by -27 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,452 contracts) while the gross bearish position dropped a little further by -303 contracts for the week (to a total of 9,120 contracts) .

Large currency speculators pushed their bullish bets for the US Dollar index higher for a third consecutive week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The US dollar index positions have remained in bullish territory now for sixty-two straight weeks and have continued to stay above the +20,000 net contract level for the past fifty-two weeks.



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Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Canadian dollar speculator positions jumped again this week as CAD bets have now gained for four straight weeks and by a total of +59,035 contracts in that period. The spec bets have risen by at least +11,000 contracts in three out of the past four weeks. The current bullish standing is at the highest level since February 13th of 2018 (a span of 74 weeks). Prior to turning bullish a couple of weeks ago, the CAD speculator position had been in bearish territory for sixty-six consecutive weeks dating back to March of 2018.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (276 weekly change in contracts), euro (4,514 contracts), Canadian dollar (11,738 contracts), Australian dollar (1,431 contracts), New Zealand dollar (4,886 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,739 contracts)..

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the British pound sterling (-3,375 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-7,729 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,304 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Euro speculators continued to trim their bearish bets this week for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. Speculator positions have now gone from over -100,000 contracts on May 21st to -31,351 contracts this week. This current standing for speculative positions is the lowest bearish level since October 30th of 2018.

Speculators once again added to their bearish bets for the British pound sterling for a fifth straight week. The GBP speculator positions had been in bearish territory from June of 2018 until April 16th 2019 when bets landed in a small bullish position of just 922 contracts. Since then, however, speculator sentiment soured again and has not looked back with positions going from 922 contracts on April 16th to a total of -76,357 contracts this week in just a span of fourteen weeks.

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,865 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -76,357 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly fall of -3,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,982 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of -11,380 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decline of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,651 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,732 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,428 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of 20,964 contracts this week. This was a boost of 11,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,226 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -52,576 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,007 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of -17,319 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 4,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,205 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of 128,121 contracts this week. This was a weekly rise of 1,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,382 net contracts.


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

WTI Crude Oil Speculators continue to advance their bullish bets this week

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 423,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly rise of 33,613 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 390,149 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 39,788 contracts (to a weekly total of 545,484 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by just 6,175 contracts for the week (to a total of 121,722 contracts).



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Speculative bullish positions have now gained in four out of the past five weeks and by a total of +72,107 contracts in that period. Prior to this recent streak of gains, the speculator positions had dropped for seven straight weeks and by a total of -195,704 contracts before turning around.

The current bullish standing is now back above the +400,000 net contract position for the first time since June 4th.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -431,546 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -38,579 contracts from the total net of -392,967 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $57.62 which was a decrease of $-0.21 from the previous close of $57.83, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

 

10-Year Note Speculators pushed their bearish bets higher this week

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -347,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly change of -58,386 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -288,836 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -1,435 contracts (to a weekly total of 680,971 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) jumped by 56,951 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,028,193 contracts).



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Large speculators added to their existing bearish positions by the most in six weeks and pushed the current bearish standing above the -300,000 net contract level for the first time in a month.

Speculators are usually reliable trend-followers and momentum traders but have been betting against higher 10-year bond prices in recent months despite prices go higher.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 289,324 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 74,147 contracts from the total net of 215,177 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.28 which was a fall of $-0.39 from the previous close of $127.67, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Speculators edged their bullish bets slightly higher this week

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week after a down week last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 245,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly rise of 738 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 244,763 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 3,430 contracts (to a weekly total of 309,535 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 2,692 contracts for the week (to a total of 64,034 contracts).



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Large speculators edged their bullish bets higher after a pull back (-14,183 contracts) last week. The trend for bullish bets has been sharply higher since May 28th when the net positions had fallen to a total of +86,688 contracts. Since then, bullish bets have risen by a total of 158,813 contracts (a weekly average gain above +20,000 contracts) as positions have increased for six out of the past seven weeks to a total above +240,000 net contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -277,408 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 1,008 contracts from the total net of -278,416 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1411.20 which was an advance of $10.70 from the previous close of $1400.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for 6th week

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators added to their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -141,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly change of -9,615 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,182 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 12,879 contracts (to a weekly total of 113,796 contracts) but being more than overcome by the gross bearish position (shorts) which gained by 22,494 contracts for the week (to a total of 255,593 contracts).



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The large speculators continue to keep pushing their bearish bets higher and betting on lower volatility. Spec bearish positions have now risen for six straight weeks (by a total of -56,287 contracts) and for eight out of the past nine weeks.

The current bearish standing is at the highest level since May 7th which was one week after the all-time record high bearish position of -180,359 net contracts.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 151,284 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 8,792 contracts from the total net of 142,492 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $15.32 which was a decrease of $-0.75 from the previous close of $16.07, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets after 2 down weeks

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators sharply increased their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 37,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly increase of 12,274 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,151 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 4,369 contracts (to a weekly total of 100,449 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -7,905 contracts for the week (to a total of 63,024 contracts).



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Large speculators had decreased their bullish bets in the previous two weeks before this week’s rebound. The Silver speculative bets have been on a strong uptrend since June 4th that has taken the net position from bearish territory (-8,443 contracts) to a bullish position of more than +37,000 net contracts. The current standing is now at the highest level since February of this year.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -59,357 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -14,080 contracts from the total net of -45,277 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1567.80 which was an uptick of $53.10 from the previous close of $1514.70, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators trimmed bearish bets for 1st time in 4 weeks

July 20th – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week following a strong run of higher bearish sentiment, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -31,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly change of 8,044 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,987 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -2,874 contracts (to a weekly total of 73,722 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -10,918 contracts for the week (to a total of 105,665 contracts).



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The large speculators cooled off on their bearish sentiment a bit this week after pushing bearish positions higher for three straight weeks and for eleven out of the previous twelve weeks.

The current standing remains highly bearish with the net standing over the -30,000 contract level for a second straight week. Speculator positioning has deteriorated quite quickly over the past few months and has gone from a total of +2,126 net contracts on April 23rd to over -31,943 contracts on July 16th.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 28,577 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -6,438 contracts from the total net of 35,015 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $270.00 which was a rise of $7.50 from the previous close of $262.50, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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