AUD/JPY technical analysis: Buyers lurk around 1-week-old support-line de…

  • AUD/JPY takes the bids to recent range resistance following another bounce from immediate support-line.
  • A rising trend-line from August 25 will gain sellers’ attention on the downside break of nearby support.
  • 74.29/30 continues to restrict the pair’s upside since the week’s start.

AUD/JPY registers another bounce off one-week-old rising trend-line but still fails to overcome the weekly range while trading near 74.27 during the initial Asian session on Wednesday.

The quote needs to overcome 74.29/30 area in order to challenge the monthly top surrounding 74.50, a break of which holds the gate for additional upside towards 75.13/20 region comprising multiple highs and lows marked during July.

It should, however, be noted that 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicates bearish signal and hence a downside break of immediate support-line, at 73.95 now, could trigger fresh declines.

In doing so, an upward sloping trend-line since August 25, at 73.08, becomes the key as a break of which can fetch the quote towards late-August highs surrounding 72.40.

AUD/JPY 4-hour chart

Trend: sideways

 

 

Personal Finance Daily: Could a spike in gas prices scare Americans into …






Happy Tuesday, MarketWatchers. Don’t miss these top stories:

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I saved $1 million for retirement without an adviser and I’m only in my 40s — yet I spend my waking hours worrying

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Paying your bills in bitcoin? Watch out for these tax issues

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Felicity Huffman’s 11th-hour letter to judge contained one glaring omission about her role in the college-admissions scandal

The ‘Desperate Housewives’ actress was sentenced Friday to 14 days in prison for paying to improve her daughter’s SAT scores.

Could a spike in gas prices scare Americans into a recession?

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I’m engaged to a ‘money monster’ who racks up parking tickets and credit-card debt

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Silicon Valley’s final frontier for mobile payments — ‘the neoliberal takeover of the human body’

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How low interest rates can discourage competition, leading to slower growth

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A flurry of M&A activity typically spells trouble for the stock market overall, writes Mark Hulbert.























Jacob Passy is a personal-finance reporter for MarketWatch and is based in New York.


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The Tell: Goldman: Hedge fund exposure to stock market hits 15-month high









Investors have bid up stocks in September as recession fears have faded and hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal have grown, and equity market positioning now has hit its highest level in 2019, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.

“Today our sentiment indicator shows that aggregate equity positioning is 1.2 standard deviations above average, indicating that positioning poses a downside risk to S&P 500 index returns in the near future,” wrote Goldman equity analysts, led by Arjun Menon, in a Tuesday research note.
















Goldman Sachs


Month-to-date, the S&P 500 index












SPX, +0.02%,










Dow Jones Industrial Average












DJIA, -0.09%










 and Nasdaq Composite index












COMP, +0.13%










 have all gained roughly 2.5%.

The Goldman analysis found that stock market exposure today is “stretched” due to rising demand for equities from various sources.

“Hedge fund net exposures are the highest since July 2018, passive equity funds inflows last week were the highest since March 2019 (+21 billion), and foreign investor equity demand is one standard deviation higher than its average,” Menon wrote. “Net futures length and equity versus bond fund flows have also rebounded to their 52-week average from below average levels during the past few weeks,” he added.

During the majority of instances when sentiment was as optimistic as it is today, the S&P 500 fell at least 2% over the subsequent two months. Menon, however, believes the market will avoid this fate this time around, as he expects economic data to surprise to the upside.

Though Goldman economists see the U.S. economy growing at just 1.4% this quarter, they expect growth to rebound in the final three months of the year and to accelerate to 2.4% in the first half of 2020. Menon sees the S&P 500 index rising 3% through the end of the year to 3,100 and wrote that “a modest re-acceleration in economic growth should offset the potential headwinds from stretched positioning.”
























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WTI dropped 6% on the day as Saudi oil supply meets demand

  • WTI drops to the lowest levels of the day following the Saudi energy Minister’s bullish statement.
  • WTI has dropped to a low of $58.54, travelling down from a high of $62.55 and down some 6% on the day.

The price of a barrel of oil has just hit the lowest levels since the week’s attack on Saildi oil facilities following bullish remarks from the Saudi Energy Minister. WTI has dropped to a low of $58.54, travelling down from a high of $62.55 and down some 5% on the day at its lowest levels. 

Speculators took profits at the highs yesterday considering there were no immediate escalations on the geopolitical front until the U.S administration claimed to have intelligence that Iran was indeed responsible for the attacks, but an outright military retaliation seems to have been averted and instead, the US will not seek war on Iran but will impose sanctions.

Saudi Energy Minister has said that supply is fully back online

The price of oil found further relief on the statement from the Saudi Energy Minister has said that supply is fully back online while production will be fully back online by the end of September. 

“We acknowledge that OPEC nations, and particularly Saudi Arabia, have a direct incentive to downplay the impact of the disruption, as each individual nation would benefit from disincentivizing others’ production,” analysts at TD Securities had to say on the matter at the start of the week.

WTI levels

The market bounced hard on the fundamental weekend news which has thrown technicals off, but with the fundamentals now calming, technicals can come back into play and the downside is in play. The price surged to the vicinity of a 127.20% Fibonacci extension of the July swing highs to Aug swing lows but has since moved back, swiftly, to the 78.6% Fibo of the same range and prior Sep’ highs in the 58.50/70s. A break below there will open the 61.8% Fibo and Aug resistance just below the 57 handle. On a re-escalation of fundamentals, the April highs at 66.58 will b back in vouge. 

 

Javad Zarif: Ending the war is only solution for all

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, has been vocal about the Saudi attacks and US participation in war Yemen.

Just imagine: The US isn’t upset when its allies mercilessly BOMB babies in Yemen for over 4 years—with its arms and its military assistance. But it is terribly upset when the victims react the only way they can—against the aggressor’s OIL refineries

US is in denial if it thinks that Yemeni victims of 4.5 yrs of the worst war crimes wouldn’t do all to strike back. Perhaps it’s embarrassed that $100s of blns of its arms didn’t intercept Yemeni fire. But blaming Iran won’t change that. Ending the war=only solution for all.

Outside the Box: Yes, millennials actually can save for retirement. Here’…









When I started working full time in 1980, there were very few retirement savings vehicles available to the average worker. I remember setting up my IRA and contributing the $2,000 annual maximum—at the time the only retirement account I could fund.

Today, by contrast, there’s a slew of retirement choices on offer. Where should those new to the workforce focus their dollars? If you have access to a 401(k) or similar retirement plan with an employer matching contribution, that’s the first place to stash your retirement savings. The match is free money and you don’t want to miss out.

Read: Young people blame climate change for their small 401(k) balances

If the company offers a Roth 401(k) account, put your money there—up to the level of the match—so you get the Roth’s tax-free growth. The company’s match, meanwhile, will go into the traditional 401(k), which means the money will be taxable when withdrawn. By saving in the Roth 401(k) and getting matched in the traditional 401(k), you’ll be diversifying across tax-free and tax-deferred accounts. In 2019, the maximum you can save in a 401(k) is $19,000 if you’re younger than age 50. The employer match doesn’t count toward this limit. There are no income restrictions on contributing to a 401(k).

Read: How one millennial managed to save almost $1 million in 10 years without ever earning a salary more than $75,000

If there’s no employer match in your employer’s plan, instead make funding a Roth IRA your top priority. You’ll have to set up the Roth IRA at a brokerage firm or mutual fund company. There are income limits that could potentially prevent you from funding a Roth IRA. But you can sidestep those limits with the so-called backdoor Roth: You establish a traditional IRA and then immediately convert it to a Roth.

In 2019, you can contribute $6,000 to all IRAs combined if you’re younger than age 50. Any contribution to a Roth IRA can be removed at any time, with no taxes or penalties owed, making it perfect for a backup emergency fund. This flexibility makes it more attractive than a Roth 401(k), unless your 401(k) contributions are earning you an employer match.

Read: The outdated career advice boomers are giving their kids

In addition to the Roth 401(k) and Roth IRA, you may have a high-deductible health insurance plan through your employer. That brings us to the third account that a new worker might establish: a health savings account, or HSA. If you’re under age 55, you can contribute $3,500—and that sum is tax-deductible, thus reducing the income taxes owed on your salary. On top of that, the money grows tax-deferred and—if it’s spent on medical expenses—will never be taxed. The super-saver will keep his or her medical receipts and not tap into the HSA for many years, and instead let the account continue to grow. When money is needed for any reason, the account holder can offset the amount withdrawn with those saved medical receipts, leaving him or her with tax-free money that can be used for any purpose.

Read: These people left their jobs behind to retire early — then life got in the way

If we ignore any employer match, the employee utilizing the above three accounts would be able to save $28,500 annually—and all the accounts might never be taxed. Realistically, few young adults who are just starting out will be saving at this level. After all, to hit that $28,500, you’d need to be earning $142,500 and saving 20% of income.

These various savings opportunities make my first annual $2,000 tax-deductible IRA contribution look small. Today, there are so many tax-free savings vehicles available to those who want to start saving early. Eventually, as you get into higher tax brackets, you might direct savings to tax-deductible 401(k) and IRA accounts, so you get the immediate tax break. But for most young adults, forgoing the tax deduction—and going for the tax-free growth—will be the way to go.

This column first appeared in Humble Dollar. It has been republished with permission.

James McGlynn CFA, RICP, is chief executive of Next Quarter Century LLC in Fort Worth, Texas, a firm focused on helping clients make smarter decisions about long-term-care insurance, Social Security and other retirement planning issues. He was a mutual fund manager for 30 years. McGlynn is the author of Retirement Planning Tips for Baby Boomers. His previous articles were As the Years Go By, Package Deals and Last Call.
























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The Wall Street Journal: Walmart likely discriminated against female empl…









Walmart Inc.












WMT, +0.58%










  likely discriminated against 178 female workers by paying less or denying promotions because of their gender, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission said in memos viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The EEOC documents ask Walmart and the women who filed complaints to come to “a just resolution of this matter,” which could include a settlement and changes to Walmart’s practices, say labor lawyers. If Walmart and the women don’t reach an agreement, the EEOC could file a lawsuit against the retailer.

The determination by the federal regulator marks a milestone in a nearly two-decade effort by current and former store workers to seek damages from the retail behemoth for discrimination.

In 2001, Walmart workers pursued a sprawling class-action suit against Walmart, alleging the retailer systematically paid 1.6 million female workers less than men and offered fewer promotions. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2011 the group had too little in common to form a single class of plaintiffs.

An expanded version of this story appears on WSJ.com



























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Outside the Box: Is a stop-loss order a good idea?









Q.: A stock I own just went over $50,000 in value. I bought it three years ago for $10,000 and I’m thinking its not going to stay above $50,000 but I’m not sure about that. I’ve come close to selling a few times but the stock just kept creeping up. I don’t want to lose and I don’t want to miss out. An adviser in my golf league says I should put a stop-loss order on it to protect the value. What do you think?

— Cam in Kissimmee

A.: Cam, a stop order would be neither a great idea nor a horrible one. The three issues are how well it allows you to participate in the upside, how well it protects the value, and the cost.

I’ll start with cost. There is no fee to put a stop order on a holding. So that’s a plus.

To make the math easier I am assuming you bought 1,000 shares for your $10,000 or $10 per share and with it is now worth $50,000, the current price is therefore $50 share.

A “stop-loss” order is an order to sell once a stock hits a certain price, the “stop”. For our example, we will put the stop in at $45. If the stock price falls to $45, the order is triggered. If the price rises, nothing happens. So, for maintaining upside potential, a stop-loss order fits the bill.

While the term “stop-loss” sounds perfect for value preservation, in practice it is not great.

A stop-loss can fail as a loss limitation tool because hitting the stop price triggers a sale but does not guarantee the price at which the sale occurs. Once the stop price is breached, the order becomes a market order and the stock can sell at an even lower price. This happens often when stocks gap down at the open or due to breaking news intraday. If you wake up tomorrow to find out the company is being sued and it opens at $40, you get $40 not the $45 where the stop was set.

To combat this, you can place a “limit” on the stop-loss by which you will sell for no less than the limit price. The limit, however, does not guarantee a sale. Once the stop price is breached, if the market price is below the limit price, the sell order won’t be executed at all. In the case of a stop-limit at $45, if the stock opens at $40 as I just described, no sale will occur because the limit is higher than the market price.

Regardless of whether the stop order executes or not, the result is often inferior to simply selling now. If the stock sells due to the stop, you will always net less selling at that lower stop price. If no sale occurs because of a limit, no loss limitation was achieved at all.

The situation begs for you to have some conviction about whether you want to retain the stock or take your profits. Which is worse for you: keeping it and having the value drop, or selling it and having it continue to rise? Selling is the most effective loss prevention technique, though it also eliminates any upside.

If you have a question for Dan, please email him with “MarketWatch Q&A” on the subject line.

Dan Moisand’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your adviser about what is best for you. Some questions are edited for brevity.


























Dan Moisand is a principal at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo, LLC in Melbourne and Orlando, Fla. He is a happily married father of two, a past national President of the Financial Planning Association, has been featured as one of America’s top financial planners by at least 10 financial planning publications.


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Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks set to drift lower as oil’s surge takes a pa…









U.S. stock indexes were on track to drift lower Tuesday morning, a day after an attack on major oil-processing facilities in Saudi Arabia sparked sparked fears over oil supplies, driving domestic crude futures to the sharpest single-session rally since the 2008 financial crisis.

Investors are keeping one eye on developments in the Middle East as central bankers in China and the U.S. retake the spotlight. A Federal Reserve gathering is set to get under way later Tuesday, with U.S. policy makers expected to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the conclusion of the meeting Wednesday.

How are major benchmarks faring?

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average












YMU19, -0.12%










were off 47 points, or 0.2%, at 27,032, those for the S&P 500












ESU19, -0.05%










 were down 4 points at 2,997.50, a decline of 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures












NQU19, -0.04%










gave up 13.75 points, or 0.2%, to reach 7,865.75.

On Monday, the Dow












DJIA, -0.52%










 fell 142.7 points, or 0.5%, to close at 27,076.82, ending an eight-day winning streak. The S&P 500 index 












SPX, -0.31%










 shed 9.43 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 2,997.96, while the Nasdaq Composite Index












COMP, -0.28%










 dropped 23.17 points, or 0.3%, to end at 8,153.54.

What’s driving the market?

Tensions in the Middle East remain high after the Saudi Arabian oil-processing hubs were attacked over the weekend, leading to the biggest single-day disruption in the crude market in its history and a record surge for oil futures.

U.S. officials have blamed Iran for the Saudi attacks that knocked out 5.7 million barrels of global production, representing about 5% of the world’s oil output. Bloomberg News reported that it may take weeks or months for the facility to come back on line.

The events have increased testiness between Iran and the U.S., with Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying that he will not negotiate with the U.S., which has maintained sanctions against Tehran since pulling out of a global nuclear pact citing noncompliance months ago.

President Donald Trump may still meet with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani in New York on the sidelines an annual United Nations General Assembly later this month, according to reports. Trump has been hesitant to directly hold Iran responsible for the Saudi attacks but has said that evidence from U.S. intelligence agencies, which have been shared with Riyadh, points to the Islamic Republic.

The Middle Eastern drama has temporarily overshadowed the Sino-American trade war, which had weighed on market sentiment and contributed to expectations that the Fed would reduce rates to tamp down the chance of an economic slowdown in the U.S.

The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, has kept its one-year bank lending facility unchanged at 3.3%, but the central bank is expected to step up stimulus on Friday by guiding benchmark rates for new loans lower, Reuters reports.

In terms of U.S. monetary policy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is set to kick off its gathering later Tuesday. However, market expectations for a rate cut of about a quarter of a percentage point have pulled back, with federal-funds futures showing a 65.8% chance of a cut on Wednesday, compared with a 92.3% chance a week ago, according to CME Group data.

Market technical analyst Mark Newton, founder of Newton Advisors, said Monday’s slump for stocks shows that gains for equities may be losing some momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting.

“Yesterday brought about the ‘Shot across the bow’ with regards to Stock and bond yield declines after nearly 3 weeks of uninterrupted progress,” Newton wrote in a Tuesday research note.

“Regardless if S&P can manage to bounce back into this week’s FOMC decision . . . the trend is losing momentum at a time when multiple trendlines are acting as resistance and seasonality for this time in September remains quite weak,” he added.

How are other markets trading?

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note












TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.65%










 fell 3 basis points to 1.81% from 1.843% on Monday.

Read: Saudi oil attack shows bond traders are worrying more about growth than inflation

Gold prices












GCZ19, -0.22%










 pulled back 0.3% to $1,506.60 an ounce after jumping 0.8% on Monday, while the U.S. dollar was flat after a 0.4% rise a day ago, as measure by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index












DXY, -0.02%,










a gauge of the buck against a basket of leading rivals.

West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery












CLV19, -1.38%










the U.S. benchmark contract, was down 1.7% at $61.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a 14.7% surge Monday, its biggest one-day percentage climb since September 2008, while November Brent crude












BRNX19, -1.22%










declined 1.5% to $67.98 a barrel, following its sharpest-ever daily percentage rise, 14.6%, according to Dow Jones Market data.

In Asia overnight Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index












HSI, -1.23%










fell 1.2%. China’s CSI 300 Index












000300, -1.68%










 sank 1.7%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, which didn’t trade on Monday due to a holiday, finished with a gain of less than 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600












SXXP, -0.18%










 traded 0.3% lower.























Mark DeCambre is MarketWatch’s markets editor. He is based in New York. Follow him on Twitter @mdecambre.


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